Category: Uncategorized
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Pittsburgh Pirates ML +150, 7.5% Chicago White Sox ML +190, 10% Baltimore Orioles ML -125, 7.5% Athletics ML +110, 7.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV…
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Horrendous day. By my calculations, losing on all 6 picks was a ~1% probability event. It’s bound to happen, but man does it feel terrible. Looking at model analysis, it doesn’t seem like the model is doing horribly, just an unlucky day. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7//15Picks won: 0/6Net Units: -6.00uROI:…
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Miami Marlins ML +145, 10% Chicago White Sox ML +190, 5% Los Angeles Angels ML +150, 7.5% San Diego Padres ML -135, 12.5% Athletics ML -130, 15% Baltimore Orioles ML +130, 10% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds…
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First bad day in a while. Rockies almost had that game tbh. White Sox played poorly the entire time except for the grand slam (which wouldn’t have even happened without a typical Volpe error). Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 4/8Sportsbook favorites won: 6/8Picks won: 1/4Net Units: -1.55uROI: -38.75% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 31/51Sportsbook favorites…
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Colorado Rockies ML +220, 7.5% Arizona Diamondbacks ML +140, 15% Pittsburgh Pirates ML +100, 10% Chicago White Sox ML +165, 20% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher…
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Decent day today. But started the day with two losses which was a bit stressful. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 12/15Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +1.30uROI: 18.57% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 27/43Sportsbook favorites won: 25/43Picks won: 11/21Net Units: +4.35uROI: 20.71%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Washington Nationals ML +220, 10% Miami Marlins ML +105, 7.5% New York Mets ML -150, 15% Arizona Diamondbacks ML +120, 5% Pittsburgh Pirates ML +145, 10% Cincinnati Reds ML +170, 10% Athletics ML +100, 17.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds…
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Mid day yesterday. White Sox choked hard. Braves got their 9 runs in the 9th inning bs again. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 3/7Net Units: +0.85uROI: 12.14% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 15/28Sportsbook favorites won: 15/28Picks won: 7/14Net Units: +3.05uROI: 21.79%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Baltimore Orioles ML +100, 5% Cleveland Guardians ML -125, 10% Miami Marlins ML +105, 17.5% Chicago White Sox ML +110, 5% Colorado Rockies ML +285, 5% Athletics ML +120, 10% Cincinnati Reds ML +165, 7.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds…
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Pretty good start to the week. Athletics clutched hard. Or it may be more accurate to say the pitching manager for the Tigers choked that game. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/13Sportsbook favorites won: 7/13Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +2.20uROI: 31.43% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 7/13Sportsbook favorites won: 7/13Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +2.20uROI: 31.43%
