Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 5/8/26 Recap

      Okay day. Not too happy with the White Sox loss but it is what it is. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 2/5Net Units: +0.05uROI: 1.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 36/65Sportsbook favorites won: 34/65Picks won: 13/28Net Units: +0.05uROI: 0.00%

    • 5/8/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Colorado Rockies ML +180, 12.5% Tampa Bay Rays ML +125, 6.5% Chicago White Sox ML +120, 14% St. Louis Cardinals ML +125, 12% Atlanta Braves ML +100, 8.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds.…

    • 5/7/26 Recap

      Quite a good day today. Great rebound from the past couple days. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/10Sportsbook favorites won: 3/10Picks won: 5/5Net Units: +5.62uROI: 112.40% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 28/50Sportsbook favorites won: 26/50Picks won: 11/23Net Units: +0.00uROI: 0.00%

    • 5/7/26 Baseball Picks

      Eleventh Day of Testing Period My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Washington Nationals ML -110, 6% Colorado Rockies ML +120, 7.5% Pittsburgh Pirates ML -110, 10% Athletics ML +115, 11% St. Louis Cardinals ML +145, 12.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are…

    • 5/6/26 Recap

      I’ve been going through it these past couple days. Courtesy of the awful Giants of course. Accuracy still looks fine though even though the picks aren’t hitting so I think it’s less model bad and more just being unlucky. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15Picks won: 2/7Net Units: -2.90uROI: -41.43% Weekly Stats:…

    • 5/6/26 Baseball Picks

      Tenth Day of Testing Period My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy St. Louis Cardinals ML -105, 11% San Francisco Giants ML +100, 17.5% Chicago White Sox ML -115, 11.5% Atlanta Braves ML +115, 8.5% Boston Red Sox ML +105, 9% Athletics ML +145, 7.5% Cleveland…

    • 5/5/26 Recap

      Logan Webb is a terrorist. Also, Cardinals and Mets game pushed to tmrw. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 4/13Sportsbook favorites won: 6/13Picks won: 1/5Net Units: -2.90uROI: -58.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 12/25Sportsbook favorites won: 14/25Picks won: 4/11Net Units: -2.72uROI: -24.70%

    • 5/5/26 Baseball Picks

      Ninth Day of Testing Period My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Athletics ML +150, 5% St. Louis Cardinals ML -115, 10% Chicago White Sox ML -105, 12.5% Pittsburgh Pirates ML +105, 5% Atlanta Braves ML +110, 7.5% San Francisco Giants ML -130, 11% Comparison to…

    • 5/4/26 Recap

      Braves choked and idk what was up with the Marlins. Alright day though. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/12Sportsbook favorites won: 8/12Picks won: 3/6Net Units: +0.18uROI: 3.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 8/12Sportsbook favorites won: 8/12Picks won: 3/6Net Units: +0.18uROI: 3.00%

    • 5/4/26 Baseball Picks

      Eighth Day of Testing Period My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Colorado Rockies ML +115, 7.5% Tampa Bay Rays ML -120, 10% Miami Marlins ML -110, 16% Chicago White Sox ML +125, 7.5% Atlanta Braves ML +115, 7% San Francisco Giants ML +110, 18% Comparison…