Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 5/18/26 Recap

      Alright day. Giants got fried ngl. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/14Sportsbook favorites won: 8/14Picks won: 2/3Net Units: +1.13uROI: 37.67% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 7/14Sportsbook favorites won: 8/14Picks won: 2/3Net Units: +1.13uROI: 37.67%

    • 5/18/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Minnesota Twins ML -120, 10% Colorado Rockies ML +130, 7% San Francisco Giants ML +110, 8% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds…

    • 5/17/26 Recap

      Pretty bad week tbh. Pretty good day though. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +1.20uROI: 120.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 50/92Sportsbook favorites won: 51/92Picks won: 11/29Net Units: -5.03uROI: -17.34%

    • 5/17/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Chicago White Sox ML +120, 10% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 66.23%…

    • 5/16/26 Recap

      Both my losses were just straight unlucky D: Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 5/15Picks won: 2/4Net Units: -0.18uROI: -4.50% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 40/77Sportsbook favorites won: 43/77Picks won: 10/28Net Units: -6.23uROI: -18.68%

    • 5/16/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Detroit Tigers ML -125, 10% Washington Nationals ML -110, 8% Tampa Bay Rays ML -150, 6.5% Chicago White Sox ML -110, 12.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup…

    • 5/15/26 Recap

      Pirates blew it. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 6/15Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15Picks won: 1/5Net Units: -2.90uROI: -58.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 32/62Sportsbook favorites won: 38/62Picks won: 8/24Net Units: -6.05uROI: -25.21%

    • 5/15/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Pittsburgh Pirates ML -135, 10% Detroit Tigers ML +110, 5% Chicago White Sox ML +120, 11.5% Kansas City Royals ML -105, 7% Los Angeles Angels ML +185, 15% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds.…

    • 5/14/26 Recap

      Awful day tbh. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/11Sportsbook favorites won: 8/11Picks won: 1/4Net Units: -2.09uROI: -52.25% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 26/47Sportsbook favorites won: 28/47Picks won: 7/19Net Units: -3.15uROI: -16.58%

    • 5/14/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Washington Nationals ML +125, 16% St. Louis Cardinals ML -110, 5.5% Boston Red Sox ML -105, 7.5% San Francisco Giants ML +140, 9% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.…