Model-Based EV Picks
Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games
Yet another bad day. Mets completely choked.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/9
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/9
Picks won: 0/2
Net Units: -2.00u
ROI: -100.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 24/50
Sportsbook favorites won: 29/50
Picks won: 7/19
Net Units: -4.27u
ROI: -22.47%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles | Pittsburgh Pirates | 57.64% | 0.1529 | +100 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.40% | 0.0337 | -130 |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Houston Astros | 44.17% | 0.0381 | +135 |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 50.05% | -0.0090 | +100 |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | 48.34% | 0.1360 | +135 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians | Kansas City Royals | 46.37% | -0.0030 | +115 |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 56.63% | 0.1892 | +110 |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies | 35.35% | 0.0606 | +200 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels | 44.33% | 0.0418 | +135 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles | Pittsburgh Pirates | 57.64% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.40% |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 55.83% |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 50.05% |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 51.66% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 53.63% |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 56.63% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 64.65% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 55.67% |
It feels like every time I get a good day, I immediately get a horrible one that resets everything.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 4/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 5/15
Picks won: 1/5
Net Units: -2.80u
ROI: -56.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 19/41
Sportsbook favorites won: 21/41
Picks won: 7/17
Net Units: -2.27u
ROI: -13.35%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 49.16% | 0.0324 | +110 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Boston Red Sox | 57.50% | 0.0178 | -130 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 53.40% | -0.0227 | -120 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 62.09% | 0.0989 | -130 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.99% | 0.0394 | -155 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 66.20% | 0.2645 | -110 |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 51.12% | 0.1502 | +125 |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 50.06% | 0.2264 | +145 |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | 43.44% | 0.0425 | +140 |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 57.62% | -0.0263 | -145 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves* | Atlanta Braves | 47.24% | 0.1573 | +145 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox* | Chicago White Sox | 44.00% | -0.0320 | +120 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres | Cincinnati Reds | 51.44% | 0.1318 | +130 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Seattle Mariners | St. Louis Cardinals | 45.18% | 0.2875 | +185 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Colorado Rockies | 31.48% | 0.1806 | +275 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers | Milwaukee Brewers | 50.84% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Boston Red Sox | 57.50% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 53.40% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 62.09% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.99% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 66.20% |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 51.12% |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 50.06% |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 56.56% |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 57.62% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves* | Atlanta Braves | 52.76% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox* | Tampa Bay Rays | 56.00% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres | Cincinnati Reds | 51.44% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 54.82% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 68.52% |
*Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams
Really solid day today. Makes up for yesterday’s fiasco.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 10/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
Picks won: 4/5
Net Units: +3.28u
ROI: 65.60%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 15/26
Sportsbook favorites won: 16/26
Picks won: 6/12
Net Units: +0.53u
ROI: 4.42%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.08% | 0.0329 | -110 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians | Kansas City Royals | 57.40% | 0.1193 | -105 |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 59.88% | 0.2276 | +105 |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 45.53% | -0.0210 | +115 |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | 62.85% | 0.4455 | +130 |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 66.29% | 0.1071 | -150 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs | 69.01% | 0.2905 | -115 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 48.10% | 0.0341 | +115 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers | Milwaukee Brewers | 60.21% | 0.1741 | -105 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 58.37% | 0.1966 | +105 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres | Cincinnati Reds | 45.00% | 0.1474 | +155 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Seattle Mariners | St. Louis Cardinals | 42.32% | 0.1426 | +170 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.00% | 0.0900 | +120 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Athletics | 53.93% | 0.0301 | -110 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Colorado Rockies | 30.78% | 0.1080 | +260 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.08% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians | Kansas City Royals | 57.40% |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 59.88% |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 54.47% |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | 62.85% |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 66.29% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs | 69.01% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 51.90% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers | Milwaukee Brewers | 60.21% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 58.37% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 55.00% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 57.68% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 50.00% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Athletics | 53.93% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 69.22% |
Horrible day today. Insanely unlucky given that so many of my picks were decently high percentage.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/11
Sportsbook favorites won: 6/11
Picks won: 2/7
Net Units: -2.75u
ROI: -39.29%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/11
Sportsbook favorites won: 6/11
Picks won: 2/7
Net Units: -2.75u
ROI: -39.29%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians | Kansas City Royals | 65.86% | 0.2843 | -105 |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 72.03% | 0.5126 | +110 |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 70.48% | 0.2686 | -125 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs | 68.93% | 0.1787 | -140 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 52.72% | 0.0807 | +105 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | Minnesota Twins | 59.84% | 0.2567 | +110 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres | Cincinnati Reds | 51.85% | 0.1407 | +120 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Seattle Mariners | St. Louis Cardinals | 34.42% | 0.0325 | +200 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | Arizona Diamondbacks | 59.68% | 0.4921 | +150 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Athletics | 63.22% | 0.5805 | +150 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers* | Colorado Rockies | 29.87% | 0.0752 | +260 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians | Kansas City Royals | 65.86% |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 72.03% |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 70.48% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs | 68.93% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 52.72% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | Minnesota Twins | 59.84% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres | Cincinnati Reds | 51.85% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 65.58% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | Arizona Diamondbacks | 59.68% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Athletics | 63.22% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers* | Los Angeles Dodgers | 70.13% |
*Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams
Model went crazy today. Amazing day today, and an excellent end to the week.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 11/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15
Picks won: 5/6
Net Units: +5.45u
ROI: 90.83%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 50/93
Sportsbook favorites won: 42/93
Picks won: 19/31
Net Units: +12.22u
ROI: 39.42%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Seattle Mariners vs Atlanta Braves | Seattle Mariners | 63.50% | 0.2699 | +100 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | Cleveland Guardians | 51.19% | 0.1517 | +125 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 44.21% | 0.0610 | +140 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays | 44.39% | 0.0210 | +130 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.13% | 0.4290 | +130 |
| New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 58.86% | 0.0594 | -125 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Chicago White Sox | 51.25% | 0.3069 | +155 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins* | Miami Marlins | 57.82% | 0.1854 | +105 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 62.40% | 0.0670 | -140 |
| San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 64.51% | 0.0645 | -155 |
| Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs | Washington Nationals | 55.62% | 0.4739 | +165 |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Houston Astros | 55.90% | -0.0106 | -130 |
| San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 34.31% | 0.0122 | +195 |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 57.78% | 0.1557 | +100 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 52.58% | 0.0253 | -105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| Seattle Mariners vs Atlanta Braves | Seattle Mariners | 63.50% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | Cleveland Guardians | 51.19% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles | Los Angeles Dodgers | 55.79% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 55.61% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.13% |
| New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 58.86% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Chicago White Sox | 51.25% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins* | Miami Marlins | 57.82% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 62.40% |
| San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 64.51% |
| Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs | Washington Nationals | 55.62% |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Houston Astros | 55.90% |
| San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies | San Diego Padres | 65.69% |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 57.78% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 52.58% |
*Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams
Bayesball Picks 