Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

Recent posts

Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games

Category: Uncategorized

  • 9/11/25 Recap

    Yet another bad day. Mets completely choked. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/9Sportsbook favorites won: 8/9Picks won: 0/2Net Units: -2.00uROI: -100.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 24/50Sportsbook favorites won: 29/50Picks won: 7/19Net Units: -4.27uROI: -22.47%

  • 9/11/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Predicted Winner Probability EV Odds Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles Pittsburgh Pirates 57.64% 0.1529 +100 Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox…

  • 9/10/25 Recap

    It feels like every time I get a good day, I immediately get a horrible one that resets everything. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 4/15Sportsbook favorites won: 5/15Picks won: 1/5Net Units: -2.80uROI: -56.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 19/41Sportsbook favorites won: 21/41Picks won: 7/17Net Units: -2.27uROI: -13.35%

  • 9/10/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 49.16% 0.0324 +110 Boston Red Sox vs Athletics Boston…

  • 9/9/25 Recap

    Really solid day today. Makes up for yesterday’s fiasco. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/15Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15Picks won: 4/5Net Units: +3.28uROI: 65.60% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 15/26Sportsbook favorites won: 16/26Picks won: 6/12Net Units: +0.53uROI: 4.42%

  • 9/9/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles Pittsburgh Pirates 54.08% 0.0329 -110 Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians…

  • 9/8/25 Recap

    Horrible day today. Insanely unlucky given that so many of my picks were decently high percentage. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/11Sportsbook favorites won: 6/11Picks won: 2/7Net Units: -2.75uROI: -39.29% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 5/11Sportsbook favorites won: 6/11Picks won: 2/7Net Units: -2.75uROI: -39.29%

  • 9/8/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Kansas City Royals 65.86% 0.2843 -105 Washington Nationals vs Miami…

  • 9/7/25 Recap

    Model went crazy today. Amazing day today, and an excellent end to the week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 11/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15Picks won: 5/6Net Units: +5.45uROI: 90.83% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 50/93Sportsbook favorites won: 42/93Picks won: 19/31Net Units: +12.22uROI: 39.42%

  • 9/7/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Seattle Mariners vs Atlanta Braves Seattle Mariners 63.50% 0.2699 +100 Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays…