Model-Based EV Picks
Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games
Pretty mid day today. Rockies almost came back at the end, which I wanted so bad.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 9/16
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/16
Picks won: 2/4
Net Units: +0.40u
ROI: 10.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 14/25
Sportsbook favorites won: 15/25
Picks won: 4/8
Net Units: -0.15u
ROI: -1.88%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals* | Washington Nationals | 45.79% | 0.0074 | +120 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians | 54.32% | 0.2493 | +130 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 57.86% | 0.0241 | -130 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals* | Atlanta Braves | 57.05% | N/A | N/A |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 70.94% | 0.1280 | -170 |
| San Diego Padres vs New York Mets | San Diego Padres | 53.57% | 0.0232 | -110 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 50.00% | -0.0450 | -110 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 44.48% | -0.0437 | +115 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 48.01% | -0.0398 | +100 |
| New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees | 68.71% | 0.0582 | -185 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers | Los Angeles Angels | 30.74% | 0.0144 | +230 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 52.05% | -0.0476 | -120 |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 60.36% | 0.2676 | +110 |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 50.00% | 0.1500 | +130 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 54.31% | 0.0862 | +100 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Philadelphia Phillies | 49.49% | -0.0102 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals* | Atlanta Braves | 54.21% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians | 54.32% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 57.86% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals* | Atlanta Braves | 57.05% |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 70.94% |
| San Diego Padres vs New York Mets | San Diego Padres | 53.57% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays | 50.00% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | Seattle Mariners | 55.52% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 51.99% |
| New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees | 68.71% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 69.26% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 52.05% |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 60.36% |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Miami Marlins | 50.00% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 54.31% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 50.51% |
*Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams
Slightly bad day today.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/9
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/9
Picks won: 2/4
Net Units: -0.55u
ROI: -13.75%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/9
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/9
Picks won: 2/4
Net Units: -0.55u
ROI: -13.75%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.19% | 0.2134 | +105 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 57.40% | 0.3776 | +140 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays | 62.01% | 0.0604 | -140 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 46.04% | 0.0130 | +120 |
| New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 40.91% | 0.1045 | +170 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 54.59% | 0.0426 | -110 |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 64.68% | 0.1254 | -135 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 71.44% | 0.2217 | -140 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.96% | 0.0424 | -120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.19% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 57.40% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays | 62.01% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 53.96% |
| New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees | 59.09% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 54.59% |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 64.68% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 71.44% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.96% |
Solid day to end the horrible week.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 11/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
Picks won: 4/7
Net Units: +0.98u
ROI: 14.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 51/80
Sportsbook favorites won: 56/65
Picks won: 17/40
Net Units: -5.29u
ROI: -13.23%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.84% | 0.1429 | -110 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Kansas City Royals | 65.10% | 0.5625 | +140 |
| Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros | 64.88% | 0.0965 | -145 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles | 42.61% | 0.0652 | +150 |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Mets | Texas Rangers | 46.51% | 0.0930 | +135 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 57.54% | 0.3809 | +140 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins* | Detroit Tigers | 63.55% | 0.0740 | -145 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins | Arizona Diamondbacks | 65.07% | 0.3340 | +105 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals | 43.41% | 0.0852 | +150 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs | Tampa Bay Rays | 41.50% | -0.0246 | +135 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics | Athletics | 62.41% | 0.1920 | -110 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Dodgers | 61.51% | 0.0519 | -140 |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies | 36.14% | 0.3553 | +275 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels | 36.63% | 0.0624 | +190 |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 69.32% | 0.1230 | -160 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.84% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Kansas City Royals | 65.10% |
| Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros | 64.88% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 57.39% |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 53.49% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 57.54% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins* | Detroit Tigers | 63.55% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins | Arizona Diamondbacks | 65.07% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 56.59% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 58.50% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics | Athletics | 62.41% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Dodgers | 61.51% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 63.86% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 63.37% |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 69.32% |
*Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams
Once again, another day with very high confidence picks that fell flat.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 10/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
Picks won: 4/9
Net Units: -0.68u
ROI: -7.56%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 40/65
Sportsbook favorites won: 47/65
Picks won: 13/33
Net Units: -6.27u
ROI: -19.00%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.12% | 0.1623 | +100 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles | 44.39% | 0.0654 | +140 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 75.38% | 0.4398 | -110 |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Mets | Texas Rangers | 51.37% | 0.2071 | +135 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins | Detroit Tigers | 70.96% | 0.2560 | -130 |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 47.46% | 0.0347 | +120 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Kansas City Royals | 70.59% | 0.5882 | +125 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 60.36% | -0.0283 | -165 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins | Arizona Diamondbacks | 55.47% | 0.2203 | +120 |
| Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros | 69.64% | 0.2326 | -130 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals | 51.45% | 0.2349 | +140 |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies | 34.39% | 0.3756 | +300 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 48.24% | -0.0112 | +105 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels | 45.03% | 0.2609 | +180 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics | Cincinnati Reds | 53.16% | -0.0272 | -120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.12% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 55.61% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 75.38% |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Mets | Texas Rangers | 51.37% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins | Detroit Tigers | 70.96% |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | New York Yankees | 52.54% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Kansas City Royals | 70.59% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 60.36% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins | Arizona Diamondbacks | 55.47% |
| Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros | 69.64% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals | 51.45% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 65.61% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51.76% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 54.97% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics | Cincinnati Reds | 53.16% |
My losing streak continues.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 6/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
Picks won: 2/5
Net Units: -1.32u
ROI: -26.40%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 30/65
Sportsbook favorites won: 37/65
Picks won: 9/24
Net Units: -5.59u
ROI: -23.29%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs | Tampa Bay Rays | 42.81% | 0.0728 | +150 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.16% | -0.0229 | -110 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Kansas City Royals | 62.39% | 0.3414 | +115 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles | 51.21% | 0.1010 | +115 |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Mets | Texas Rangers | 57.68% | 0.1016 | -110 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 52.26% | 0.2805 | +145 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 34.45% | -0.0181 | +185 |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 53.23% | 0.0646 | +100 |
| Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros | 72.32% | 0.4272 | +100 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins | Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.02% | 0.0459 | +105 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals | 48.22% | 0.2779 | +165 |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres* | Colorado Rockies | 30.70% | 0.1207 | +265 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics* | Athletics | 55.87% | 0.0224 | -120 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels | 39.59% | -0.0499 | +140 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Dodgers | 62.92% | 0.0131 | -165 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 57.09% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.16% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Kansas City Royals | 62.39% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles | 51.21% |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Mets | Texas Rangers | 57.68% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 52.26% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins | Detroit Tigers | 65.55% |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 53.23% |
| Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros | 71.36% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins | Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.02% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 51.78% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 69.30% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics* | Athletics | 55.87% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 60.41% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Dodgers | 62.92% |
*Missing starting pitcher information for one or both teams
Bayesball Picks 