Model-Based EV Picks
Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games
Pretty mid day. Really a big blow that the Orioles lost though, given their predicted probability to win.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
Picks won: 2/5
Net Units: -0.20u
ROI: -4.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 32/60
Sportsbook favorites won: 30/60
Picks won: 11/22
Net Units: +3.53u
ROI: 16.05%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs* | Chicago Cubs | 62.30% | -0.0281 | -180 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Minnesota Twins | 55.85% | 0.3124 | +135 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Washington Nationals | Chicago White Sox | 52.70% | 0.1067 | +110 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles | 70.28% | 0.6166 | +130 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 65.89% | 0.0081 | -190 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 55.93% | 0.0068 | -125 |
| Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 64.43% | 0.0438 | -160 |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | New York Mets | 56.60% | -0.0321 | -140 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.81% | 0.2410 | +135 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | 55.34% | 0.3559 | +145 |
| Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels | Houston Astros | 58.65% | -0.0499 | -160 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks | 54.40% | 0.1696 | +115 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners* | Los Angeles Dodgers | 50.73% | N/A | N/A |
| Kansas City Royals vs Athletics* | Kansas City Royals | 50.36% | N/A | N/A |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 68.98% | -0.0343 | -250 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs* | Chicago Cubs | 62.30% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Minnesota Twins | 55.85% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Washington Nationals | Chicago White Sox | 52.70% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles | 70.28% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 65.89% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 55.93% |
| Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 64.43% |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | New York Mets | 56.60% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.81% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | 55.34% |
| Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels | Houston Astros | 58.65% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks | 54.40% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners* | Los Angeles Dodgers | 50.73% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Athletics* | Kansas City Royals | 50.36% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 68.98% |
*Missing starting pitcher information for one or both teams
Not a great day today. White Sox almost had it, but they choked twice in this series that led to their loss.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/12
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/12
Picks won: 1/3
Net Units: -1.13u
ROI: -37.67%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 24/45
Sportsbook favorites won: 22/45
Picks won: 9/17
Net Units: +3.73u
ROI: 21.94%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Pittsburgh Pirates | 48.46% | 0.1631 | +140 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | Tampa Bay Rays | 59.20% | 0.0301 | -135 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers | Minnesota Twins | 42.66% | -0.0401 | +125 |
| Houston Astros vs Athletics | Athletics | 49.66% | -0.0068 | +100 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 44.93% | 0.0784 | +140 |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 66.07% | 0.0372 | -175 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians* | Cleveland Guardians | 65.03% | 0.0470 | -165 |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | Chicago White Sox | 45.31% | 0.6763 | +270 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | Boston Red Sox | 57.01% | 0.1973 | +110 |
| New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs | New York Mets | 51.26% | -0.0209 | -110 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels | Kansas City Royals | 65.19% | 0.2191 | -115 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners* | Colorado Rockies | 35.07% | -0.0355 | +175 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 51.54% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | Tampa Bay Rays | 59.20% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 57.34% |
| Houston Astros vs Athletics | Houston Astros | 50.34% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Dodgers | 55.07% |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 66.07% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians* | Cleveland Guardians | 65.03% |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 54.69% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | Boston Red Sox | 57.01% |
| New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs | New York Mets | 51.26% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels | Kansas City Royals | 65.19% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners* | Seattle Mariners | 64.93% |
*Missing starting pitcher information for one or both teams
Pretty solid day today.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 9/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
Picks won: 3/5
Net Units: +1.11u
ROI: 22.20%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 16/33
Sportsbook favorites won: 14/33
Picks won: 8/14
Net Units: +4.86u
ROI: 34.71%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 59.37% | 0.5437 | +160 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres | Milwaukee Brewers | 51.96% | 0.0651 | +105 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | Tampa Bay Rays | 48.30% | -0.0340 | +100 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 61.94% | 0.0963 | -130 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Pittsburgh Pirates | 48.52% | -0.0297 | +100 |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins | 58.95% | 0.5917 | +170 |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | Chicago White Sox | 42.46% | 0.7196 | +305 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 44.26% | -0.0042 | +120 |
| New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 68.43% | 0.1907 | -135 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers | Minnesota Twins | 38.01% | 0.0263 | +170 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels | Kansas City Royals | 54.20% | 0.0839 | +100 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 45.68% | 0.0963 | +140 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners | Colorado Rockies | 32.77% | 0.1961 | +265 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants | St. Louis Cardinals | 50.97% | 0.0705 | +110 |
| Houston Astros vs Athletics | Athletics | 46.17% | 0.0158 | +120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winer | Probability |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 59.37% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres | Milwaukee Brewers | 51.96% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 51.70% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 61.94% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 51.48% |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins | 58.95% |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 57.54% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | Boston Red Sox | 54.74% |
| New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 68.43% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 61.99% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels | Kansas City Royals | 54.20% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Dodgers | 54.32% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 67.23% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants | St. Louis Cardinals | 50.97% |
| Houston Astros vs Athletics | Houston Astros | 53.83% |
Really good day. Marlins and Cardinals came clutch. White Sox trolled pretty hard though. Ended up losing the game because of a wild pitch home base steal in the 9th inning.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 4/15
Picks won: 4/7
Net Units: +3.50u
ROI: 50.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/18
Sportsbook favorites won: 6/18
Picks won: 5/9
Net Units: +3.75u
ROI: 41.67%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | Tampa Bay Rays | 53.25% | -0.0041 | -115 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 54.27% | 0.2752 | +135 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Pittsburgh Pirates | 49.24% | 0.2311 | +150 |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins | 47.46% | 0.3525 | +185 |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | Chicago White Sox | 45.63% | 0.3917 | +205 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | Boston Red Sox | 48.37% | 0.1125 | +130 |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 65.17% | 0.7596 | +170 |
| New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 60.14% | 0.1246 | -115 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 58.14% | -0.0291 | -150 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels | Kansas City Royals | 67.14% | 0.0474 | -180 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 41.89% | 0.0263 | +145 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners | Colorado Rockies | 31.52% | 0.1346 | +260 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.69% | 0.0065 | -110 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants | St. Louis Cardinals | 46.35% | 0.2977 | +180 |
| Houston Astros vs Athletics | Athletics | 56.34% | 0.0761 | -110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | Tampa Bay Rays | 53.25% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 54.27% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 50.76% |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 52.54% |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 54.37% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 51.63% |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 65.17% |
| New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 60.14% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 58.14% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels | Kansas City Royals | 67.14% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Dodgers | 58.11% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 68.48% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.69% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 53.65% |
| Houston Astros vs Athletics | Athletics | 56.34% |
Decent start to the last week of the regular season.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 2/3
Sportsbook favorites won: 2/3
Picks won: 1/2
Net Units: +0.25u
ROI: 12.50%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 2/3
Sportsbook favorites won: 2/3
Picks won: 1/2
Net Units: +0.25u
ROI: 12.50%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 41.29% | 0.3212 | +220 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres | Milwaukee Brewers | 53.04% | 0.0874 | +105 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants | St. Louis Cardinals | 61.32% | 0.3797 | +125 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 58.71% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres | Milwaukee Brewers | 53.04% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants | St. Louis Cardinals | 61.32% |
Bayesball Picks 