Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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Recent posts

Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games

  • 10/2/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Chicago Cubs ML -115, 7.5%
    • Boston Red Sox ML +140, 7.5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians53.28%-0.0409-125
    San Diego Padres vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs60.32%0.1281-115
    Boston Red Sox vs New York YankeesBoston Red Sox51.82%0.2438+140

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians53.28%
    San Diego Padres vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs60.32%
    Boston Red Sox vs New York YankeesBoston Red Sox51.82%

  • 10/1/25 Recap

    Yea the model isn’t looking good for the post-season tbh. Hopefully just getting unlucky right now; it’d be good if the model generalized to post season.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 3/4
    Sportsbook favorites won: 3/4
    Picks won: 0/2
    Net Units: -2u
    ROI: -100.00%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 4/8
    Sportsbook favorites won: 6/8
    Picks won: 1/5
    Net Units: -3.17u
    ROI: -63.40%

  • 10/1/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Chicago Cubs ML -110, 7.5%
    • Cincinnati Reds ML +225, 10%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians60.39%0.0205-145
    San Diego Padres vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs59.67%0.1396-110
    Boston Red Sox vs New York YankeesBoston Red Sox44.68%0.1170+150
    Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles DodgersCincinnati Reds46.20%0.5015+225

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians60.39%
    San Diego Padres vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs59.67%
    Boston Red Sox vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees55.32%
    Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers53.80%

  • 9/30/25 Recap

    Not the best day for the model or picks. I honestly doubt that the model trained off of the regular season games will properly generalize for the post-season games, but we’ll see.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 1/4
    Sportsbook favorites won: 3/4
    Picks won: 1/3
    Net Units: -1.17u
    ROI: -39.00%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 1/4
    Sportsbook favorites won: 3/4
    Picks won: 1/3
    Net Units: -1.17u
    ROI: -39.00%

  • 9/30/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Cleveland Guardians ML +140, 7.5%
    • Chicago Cubs ML -120, 5%
    • Cincinnati Reds ML +180, 12.5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians51.78%0.2427+140
    San Diego Padres vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs58.12%0.0636-120
    Boston Red Sox vs New York YankeesBoston Red Sox48.69%0.0225+110
    Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles DodgersCincinnati Reds51.07%0.4301+180

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians51.78%
    San Diego Padres vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs58.12%
    Boston Red Sox vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees51.31%
    Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles DodgersCincinnati Reds51.07%

  • Post-Season Plans

    I may post picks for the matches in the post-season. I will also be considering futures. As of currently, my top 3 to win the world series according to my model are the Dodgers, Cubs, and Mariners.

  • 9/28/25 Recap

    Horrible day today to end the regular season.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 7/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15
    Picks won: 1/5
    Net Units: -2.90u
    ROI: -58.00%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 48/90
    Sportsbook favorites won: 50/90
    Picks won: 15/34
    Net Units: -0.21u
    ROI: -0.62%

  • 9/28/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Baltimore Orioles ML +165, 17.5%
    • Tampa Bay Rays ML +160, 10%
    • Miami Marlins ML +110, 5%
    • Cincinnati Reds ML +110, 5%
    • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +160, 15%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox*Boston Red Sox62.44%N/AN/A
    Kansas City Royals vs AthleticsAthletics62.24%N/AN/A
    Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco GiantsColorado Rockies32.41%0.1504+255
    Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia PhilliesMinnesota Twins42.80%0.1984+180
    Chicago White Sox vs Washington NationalsChicago White Sox52.50%0.0238-105
    Baltimore Orioles vs New York YankeesBaltimore Orioles58.95%0.5621+165
    Houston Astros vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels51.37%0.0273+100
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays51.06%0.3275+160
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego PadresArizona Diamondbacks51.07%0.0214+100
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners55.22%0.0548-110
    Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians*Cleveland Guardians63.87%0.0539-155
    New York Mets vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins53.55%0.1244+110
    Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee BrewersCincinnati Reds52.90%0.1109+110
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta BravesPittsburgh Pirates55.52%0.4711+165
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago CubsSt. Louis Cardinals46.74%0.1450+145

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
    Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox*Boston Red Sox62.44%
    Kansas City Royals vs AthleticsAthletics62.24%
    Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants67.59%
    Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies57.20%
    Chicago White Sox vs Washington NationalsChicago White Sox52.50%
    Baltimore Orioles vs New York YankeesBaltimore Orioles58.95%
    Houston Astros vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels51.37%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays51.06%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego PadresArizona Diamondbacks51.07%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners55.22%
    Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians*Cleveland Guardians63.87%
    New York Mets vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins53.55%
    Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee BrewersCincinnati Reds52.90%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta BravesPittsburgh Pirates55.52%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs53.26%

    *Missing starting pitcher information for one or both teams

  • 9/27/25 Recap

    Another down day sadly.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 9/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
    Picks won: 3/7
    Net Units: -0.84u
    ROI: -12.00%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 41/75
    Sportsbook favorites won: 39/75
    Picks won: 14/29
    Net Units: +2.69u
    ROI: 9.28%

  • 9/27/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Baltimore Orioles ML +205, 7.5%
    • Chicago White Sox ML +100. 12.5%
    • Boston Red Sox ML -150, 12.5%
    • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +135, 10%
    • Cincinnati Reds ML +120, 12.5%
    • Houston Astros ML -165, 10%
    • Athletics ML -125, 7.5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Baltimore Orioles vs New York YankeesBaltimore Orioles44.00%0.3419+205
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago CubsSt. Louis Cardinals44.16%0.1261+155
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays44.85%0.0539+135
    Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco GiantsColorado Rockies40.82%0.2451+205
    Chicago White Sox vs Washington NationalsChicago White Sox63.38%0.2677+100
    Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox69.23%0.1561-150
    New York Mets vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins50.00%0.0750+115
    Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies67.53%-0.0275-225
    Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians*Cleveland Guardians59.98%-0.0283-160
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta BravesPittsburgh Pirates53.41%0.2550+135
    Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee BrewersCincinnati Reds60.11%0.3224+120
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres56.38%-0.0359-140
    Houston Astros vs Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros70.75%0.1391-165
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners57.68%0.0382-125
    Kansas City Royals vs AthleticsAthletics61.19%0.1014-125

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
    Baltimore Orioles vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees56.00%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs55.84%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays55.15%
    Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants59.18%
    Chicago White Sox vs Washington NationalsChicago White Sox63.38%
    Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox69.23%
    New York Mets vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins50.00%
    Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies67.53%
    Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians*Cleveland Guardians59.98%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta BravesPittsburgh Pirates53.41%
    Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee BrewersCincinnati Reds60.11%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres56.38%
    Houston Astros vs Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros70.75%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners57.68%
    Kansas City Royals vs AthleticsAthletics61.19%

    *Missing starting pitcher information for one or both teams