Model-Based EV Picks
Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 52.58% | 0.1042 | +110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 52.58% |
Another slight up day for the model.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 1/2
Sportsbook favorites won: 1/2
Picks won: 1/2
Net Units: +0.05u
ROI: 2.50%
Post-Season Stats:
Model favorites won: 11/19
Sportsbook favorites won: 13/19
Picks won: 6/12
Net Units: -0.70u
ROI: -5.83%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 51.75% | 0.1126 | +115 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | Chicago Cubs | 56.36% | 0.1553 | +105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 51.75% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | Chicago Cubs | 56.36% |
Another slight up day for the model.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 2/2
Sportsbook favorites won: 2/2
Picks won: 1/1
Net Units: +0.71u
ROI: 71.00%
Post-Season Stats:
Model favorites won: 10/17
Sportsbook favorites won: 12/17
Picks won: 5/10
Net Units: -0.75u
ROI: -7.50%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | Seattle Mariners | 61.25% | 0.0457 | -140 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays | 43.31% | -0.0039 | +130 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | Seattle Mariners | 61.25% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 56.69% |
Model doing quite a bit better now.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 2/2
Sportsbook favorites won: 2/2
Picks won: 1/1
Net Units: +0.74u
ROI: 74.00%
Post-Season Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
Picks won: 4/9
Net Units: -1.46u
ROI: -16.22%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies | Los Angeles Dodgers | 60.23% | 0.0480 | -135 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | Chicago Cubs | 47.77% | 0.0033 | +110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies | Los Angeles Dodgers | 60.23% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.23% |
I still think my model might not properly generalize, but that’s the first up day.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 1/2
Sportsbook favorites won: 0/2
Picks won: 1/1
Net Units: +1.10u
ROI: 110%
Post-Season Stats:
Model favorites won: 6/13
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/13
Picks won: 3/8
Net Units: -2.20u
ROI: -27.50%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 42.04% | -0.0332 | +130 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 53.90% | 0.1318 | +110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays | New York Yankees | 57.96% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 53.90% |
Numbers aside, intuitively, it would make sense that my model wouldn’t work as well for post-season since starting pitcher is valued a lot more in the post-season than in the regular season.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 1/3
Sportsbook favorites won: 2/3
Picks won: 1/2
Net Units: -0.13u
ROI: -6.50%
Post-Season Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/11
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/11
Picks won: 2/7
Net Units: -3.30u
ROI: -47.14%
Bayesball Picks 