Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games

  • 10/17/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • None Today

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle MarinersToronto Blue Jays52.03%-0.0479-120
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles DodgersMilwaukee Brewers38.75%0.0463+170

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle MarinersToronto Blue Jays52.03%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers61.25%

  • 10/15/25 Recap

    Well, Mariners did not end up sweeping. Blue Jays laid belt to ass. My model had that though.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 1/1
    Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1
    Picks won: 1/1
    Net Units: +1.00u
    ROI: 100.00%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 17/25
    Sportsbook favorites won: 15/25
    Picks won: 11/17
    Net Units: +4.78u
    ROI: 28.12%

  • 10/15/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Toronto Blue Jays ML +100, 15%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle MarinersToronto Blue Jays65.01%0.3003+100

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle MarinersToronto Blue Jays65.01%

  • 10/14/25 Recap

    I think both Dodgers and Mariners might end up sweeping.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 1/1
    Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1
    Picks won: 1/1
    Net Units: +0.83u
    ROI: 83.00%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 16/24
    Sportsbook favorites won: 15/24
    Picks won: 10/16
    Net Units: +3.78u
    ROI: 23.63%

  • 10/14/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Los Angeles Dodgers ML -120, 2.5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Dodgers57.60%0.0540-120

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Dodgers57.60%

  • 10/13/25 Recap

    My model’s been really good after that set of wild card matches. Maybe it’s luck though.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 2/2
    Sportsbook favorites won: 1/2
    Picks won: 1/1
    Net Units: +1.15u
    ROI: 115.00%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 15/23
    Sportsbook favorites won: 14/23
    Picks won: 9/15
    Net Units: +2.95u
    ROI: 19.67%

  • 10/13/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Seattle Mariners ML +115, 7.5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue JaysSeattle Mariners54.69%0.1759+115
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Dodgers63.39%0.0269-160

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue JaysSeattle Mariners54.69%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Dodgers63.39%

  • 10/12/25 Recap

    Seems like the models been good in these past few games. Although, I did miss a few days.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 1/1
    Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1
    Picks won: 1/1
    Net Units: +1.40u
    ROI: 140.00%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 13/21
    Sportsbook favorites won: 13/21
    Picks won: 8/14
    Net Units: 1.80u
    ROI: 12.86%

  • 10/12/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Seattle Mariners ML +140, 10%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue JaysSeattle Mariners52.29%0.2549+140

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue JaysSeattle Mariners52.29%

  • 10/10/25 Recap

    Another slight up day for the model.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 1/1
    Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1
    Picks won: 1/1
    Net Units: +1.10u
    ROI: 110.00%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 12/20
    Sportsbook favorites won: 13/20
    Picks won: 7/13
    Net Units: 0.40u
    ROI: 3.07%