Bayesball Picks

Horrible day today, like last Saturday. I’m not superstitious or anything, but I’m starting to think Saturdays may be cursed for my model or something. It is, however, also notable that the Braves were still missing starting pitcher information an hour before the game. I assume that some of the other probable starting pitchers were also possibly not set in stone, which would have a big effect on my model’s performance.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 6/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
Picks won: 1/5
Net Units: -2.70u
ROI: -54.00%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 42/76
Sportsbook favorites won: 41/76
Picks won: 16/31
Net Units: +2.57u
ROI: 8.29%

I went 3/6 on picks today, but since all the picks today had good odds, I ended up with a solid profit today. It was kind of funny to see how few people there were at the earlier White Sox game today.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 9/16
Sportsbook favorites won: 9/16
Picks won: 3/6
Net Units: +1.70u
ROI: 28.33%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 36/61
Sportsbook favorites won: 32/61
Picks won: 15/26
Net Units: +5.27u
ROI: 20.27%

Although today was a positive day. it felt pretty awful since both Rays and Mariners should have won, especially the Mariners. Honestly, their chokejob was impressive. White Sox match got postponed, so we’ll see how it goes tomorrow. The prediction may change though.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 6/10
Sportsbook favorites won: 4/10
Picks won: 3/5
Net Units: +1.50u
ROI: 30.00%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 27/45
Sportsbook favorites won: 23/45
Picks won: 12/20
Net Units: +3.57u
ROI: 17.85%

Pretty rough day today. I made a pretty big mistake missing the first few matches, since Brewers had pretty good odds and probability last night. I might switch to posting the matchups early on, then updating the ones that start later the day a few hours before they begin.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 4/10
Sportsbook favorites won: 5/10
Picks won: 1/3
Net Units: -1.35u
ROI: -45.00%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 21/35
Sportsbook favorites won: 19/35
Picks won: 9/15
Net Units: +2.07u
ROI: 13.8%

Mets and Giants had me sweating today. Pretty good day overall. Mariners was a true disasterclass. They lost all their steam after the game got delayed.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 10/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
Picks won: 4/6
Net Units: +1.01u
ROI: 16.83%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 17/25
Sportsbook favorites won: 14/25
Picks won: 8/12
Net Units: +3.42u
ROI: 28.5%