Model-Based EV Picks
Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games
Unfortunate home loss for the Jays.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 1/1
Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1
Picks won: 0/1
Net Units: -1.00u
ROI: -100.00%
Post-Season Stats:
Model favorites won: 20/31
Sportsbook favorites won: 19/31
Picks won: 12/21
Net Units: +3.13u
ROI: 14.90%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 50.00% | 0.1000 | +120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Los Angeles Dodgers | 50.00% |
Very big Blue Jays win.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 1/1
Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1
Picks won: 1/1
Net Units: +1.35u
ROI: 135.00%
Post-Season Stats:
Model favorites won: 19/30
Sportsbook favorites won: 18/30
Picks won: 12/20
Net Units: +4.13u
ROI: 20.65%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 51.81% | 0.2176 | +135 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 51.81% |
Very unfortunate Mariners loss.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 0/1
Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1
Picks won: 0/1
Net Units: -1.00u
ROI: -100.00%
Post-Season Stats:
Model favorites won: 18/29
Sportsbook favorites won: 18/29
Picks won: 11/19
Net Units: +2.78u
ROI: 14.63%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays | Seattle Mariners | 50.11% | 0.0272 | +105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays | Seattle Mariners | 50.11% |
Mariners go to a game 7.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 0/1
Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1
Picks won: 0/1
Net Units: -1.00u
ROI: -100.00%
Post-Season Stats:
Model favorites won: 18/28
Sportsbook favorites won: 17/28
Picks won: 11/18
Net Units: +3.78u
ROI: 21.00%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays | Seattle Mariners | 51.01% | 0.0201 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays | Seattle Mariners | 51.01% |
And Dodgers get the sweep. My model had Jays, but I wanted Mariners, so I’m glad my model missed that.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 1/2
Sportsbook favorites won: 1/2
Picks won: 0/0
Net Units: +0.00u
ROI: 0.00%
Post-Season Stats:
Model favorites won: 18/27
Sportsbook favorites won: 16/27
Picks won: 11/17
Net Units: +4.78u
ROI: 28.12%
Mariners might be a little screwed.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 1/2
Sportsbook favorites won: 1/2
Picks won: 0/1
Net Units: -1.00u
ROI: -100.00%
Post-Season Stats:
Model favorites won: 18/27
Sportsbook favorites won: 16/27
Picks won: 11/18
Net Units: +3.78u
ROI: 21.00%
Bayesball Picks 