Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games

  • 7/21/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Miami Marlins ML -145
    • Washington Nationals ML +105
    • Chicago White Sox ML +190
    • Seattle Mariners ML -115
    • Los Angeles Dodgers ML -185

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians64.17%0.0716-150
    Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates60.46%0.0882-125
    San Diego Padres vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins66.26%0.1198-145
    Cincinnati Reds vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals62.65%0.2843+105
    Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies66.19%-0.0403-220
    New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays51.70%0.0237-105
    Los Angeles Angels vs New York MetsLos Angeles Angels39.60%-0.0497+140
    San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves55.14%-0.0075-125
    Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox48.22%0.3985+190
    Kansas City Royals vs Chicago CubsKansas City Royals46.88%0.0548+125
    Oakland Athletics vs Texas RangersOakland Athletics47.00%-0.0365+105
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado RockiesSt. Louis Cardinals66.82%0.1159-150
    Houston Astros vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks56.72%-0.0415-145
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners62.54%0.1694-115
    Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers71.78%0.1054-185

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians64.17%
    Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates60.46%
    San Diego Padres vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins66.26%
    Cincinnati Reds vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals62.65%
    Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies66.19%
    New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays51.70%
    Los Angeles Angels vs New York MetsNew York Mets60.40%
    San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves55.14%
    Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays51.78%
    Kansas City Royals vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs53.12%
    Oakland Athletics vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers53.00%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado RockiesSt. Louis Cardinals66.82%
    Houston Astros vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks56.72%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners62.54%
    Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers71.78%

  • 7/20/25 Recap

    Not a great day today, but not as horrible as the first two Saturdays. Was bound for a loss after having such wins lately.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 8/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
    Picks won: 2/5
    Net Units: -0.77u
    ROI: -15.40%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 25/45
    Sportsbook favorites won: 23/45
    Picks won: 11/19
    Net Units: +4.74u
    ROI: 24.95%

  • 7/20/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Washington Nationals ML +100
    • Los Angeles Angels ML +140
    • Atlanta Braves ML -130
    • Kansas City Royals ML -120
    • Texas Rangers ML +150

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays54.31%0.0048-115
    Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays60.74%0.0934-125
    San Diego Padres vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals61.76%0.2229+100
    Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Angels47.86%0.1486+140
    Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh PiratesChicago White Sox47.79%0.0275+115
    New York Yankees vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves63.43%0.1227-130
    Cincinnati Reds vs New York MetsNew York Mets56.14%-0.0231-135
    Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians52.72%0.0070-110
    Kansas City Royals vs Miami MarlinsKansas City Royals76.95%0.4081-120
    Boston Red Sox vs Chicago CubsBoston Red Sox58.17%0.0122-135
    Minnesota Twins vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies32.17%-0.0350+200
    Houston Astros vs Seattle MarinersHouston Astros49.69%0.0683+115
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks66.10%0.1038-150
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers60.53%0.0109-150
    Detroit Tigers vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers46.84%0.1709+150

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays54.31%
    Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays60.74%
    San Diego Padres vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals61.76%
    Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies52.14%
    Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates52.21%
    New York Yankees vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves63.43%
    Cincinnati Reds vs New York MetsNew York Mets56.14%
    Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians52.72%
    Kansas City Royals vs Miami MarlinsKansas City Royals76.95%
    Boston Red Sox vs Chicago CubsBoston Red Sox58.17%
    Minnesota Twins vs Colorado RockiesMinnesota Twins67.83%
    Houston Astros vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners50.31%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks66.10%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers60.53%
    Detroit Tigers vs Texas RangersDetroit Tigers53.16%

  • 7/19/25 Recap

    Pretty solid day today. Had a ton of decent probability picks today and they delivered. Could’ve had an extra win though if the Braves didn’t absolutely choke that 5-0 lead. Mariners did clutch up though which balances that out a little. Turns out Saturdays may not be as cursed as I had thought. Notably though, the sportsbook favorites were awful today.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 9/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15
    Picks won: 6/8
    Net Units: +4.62u
    ROI: 57.75%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 17/30
    Sportsbook favorites won: 14/30
    Picks won: 9/14
    Net Units: +5.51u
    ROI: 39.36%

  • 7/19/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Toronto Blue Jays ML +105
    • Miami Marlins ML +100
    • Los Angeles Angels ML +115
    • Washington Nationals ML +115
    • Arizona Diamondbacks ML +100
    • Atlanta Braves ML +110
    • Colorado Rockies ML +165
    • Seattle Mariners ML -130

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays60.33%0.2368+105
    Cincinnati Reds vs New York MetsCincinnati Reds40.87%0.0218+150
    Kansas City Royals vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins57.38%0.1475+100
    Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Angels58.25%0.2524+115
    Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh PiratesChicago White Sox48.27%0.0378+115
    San Diego Padres vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals61.50%0.3222+115
    Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays58.00%0.0265-130
    Detroit Tigers vs Texas RangersDetroit Tigers49.68%-0.0313-105
    Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians56.04%-0.0417-140
    Boston Red Sox vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs59.84%-0.0007-150
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks64.61%0.2922+100
    New York Yankees vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves63.65%0.3367+110
    Minnesota Twins vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies50.29%0.3327+165
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers63.88%0.0923-140
    Houston Astros vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners69.27%0.2262-130

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays60.33%
    Cincinnati Reds vs New York MetsNew York Mets59.13%
    Kansas City Royals vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins57.38%
    Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Angels58.25%
    Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates51.73%
    San Diego Padres vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals61.50%
    Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays58.00%
    Detroit Tigers vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers50.32%
    Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians56.04%
    Boston Red Sox vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs59.84%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks64.61%
    New York Yankees vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves63.65%
    Minnesota Twins vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies50.29%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers63.88%
    Houston Astros vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners69.27%

  • 7/18/25 Recap

    Alright day today. Solid odds on my bets, so ended up with a good return even though I went 3/6 on picks. Glad that baseball and betting is back. Technically the start of this week of betting given the long All Stars delay.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 8/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
    Picks won: 3/6
    Net Units: +0.89u
    ROI: 14.83%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 8/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
    Picks won: 3/6
    Net Units: +0.89u
    ROI: 14.83%

  • 7/18/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Boston Red Sox ML +115
    • Washington Nationals ML +120
    • Los Angeles Angels ML +180
    • New York Yankees ML +115
    • Colorado Rockies ML +135
    • Seattle Mariners ML -135

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Boston Red Sox vs Chicago CubsBoston Red Sox56.44%0.2135+115
    Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh PiratesChicago White Sox44.99%0.0797+140
    San Diego Padres vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals56.65%0.2349+120
    Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Angels59.69%0.6713+180
    San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue JaysSan Francisco Giants46.32%0.0422+125
    Cincinnati Reds vs New York MetsNew York Mets59.94%0.0010-150
    Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians57.13%0.0112-130
    Kansas City Royals vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins53.14%0.0627+100
    New York Yankees vs Atlanta BravesNew York Yankees52.68%0.1326+115
    Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays55.82%0.0048-125
    Detroit Tigers vs Texas RangersDetroit Tigers52.40%0.0009-110
    Minnesota Twins vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies54.01%0.2692+135
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks60.48%0.0706-130
    Houston Astros vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners67.71%0.1781-135
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles DodgersMilwaukee Brewers39.06%-0.0079+155

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Boston Red Sox vs Chicago CubsBoston Red Sox56.44%
    Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates55.01%
    San Diego Padres vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals56.65%
    Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Angels59.69%
    San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays53.68%
    Cincinnati Reds vs New York MetsNew York Mets59.94%
    Oakland Athletics vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians57.13%
    Kansas City Royals vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins53.14%
    New York Yankees vs Atlanta BravesNew York Yankees52.68%
    Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays55.82%
    Detroit Tigers vs Texas RangersDetroit Tigers52.40%
    Minnesota Twins vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies54.01%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks60.48%
    Houston Astros vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners67.71%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers60.94%

  • No Picks Until Friday (7/18)

    This week is MLB All-Star Week, so there are no regular games until Friday. Unfortunately, that means no picks or gambling until Friday.

  • 7/13/25 Recap

    Model performed pretty well today and closed this week out with a bang. Unfortunately, the White Sox choked, and Steven Kwan clutched up to finish them off in the 10th. Otherwise, all the matches went pretty much as expected. Athletics were surprisingly dominant today. Given the Jay’s recent dominance, I thought it might go against my model, but the Athletics played solid baseball.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 10/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
    Picks won: 4/6
    Net Units: +2.45u
    ROI: 40.83%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 52/91
    Sportsbook favorites won: 49/91
    Picks won: 20/37
    Net Units: +5.02u
    ROI: 13.57%

  • 7/13/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Tampa Bay Rays ML +100
    • Chicago Cubs ML +105
    • Kansas City Royals ML +100
    • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +135
    • Chicago White Sox ML +120
    • Oakland Athletics ML +105

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays57.15%0.1431+100
    Miami Marlins vs Baltimore OriolesMiami Marlins49.33%-0.0133+100
    Chicago Cubs vs New York YankeesChicago Cubs69.16%0.4178+105
    Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati RedsColorado Rockies41.74%0.2522+200
    Seattle Mariners vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers55.42%0.0364-115
    New York Mets vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals59.92%0.1984+100
    Texas Rangers vs Houston AstrosTexas Rangers46.69%0.0271+120
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota TwinsPittsburgh Pirates51.01%0.1987+135
    Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox66.58%0.4649+120
    Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee BrewersWashington Nationals35.71%0.1783+230
    Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis CardinalsAtlanta Braves47.71%0.1688+145
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants46.64%0.0260+120
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics56.83%0.1651+105
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles AngelsArizona Diamondbacks53.92%0.0299-110
    Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego PadresPhiladelphia Phillies60.40%0.0328-140

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays57.15%
    Miami Marlins vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles50.67%
    Chicago Cubs vs New York YankeesChicago Cubs69.16%
    Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds58.26%
    Seattle Mariners vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers55.42%
    New York Mets vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals59.92%
    Texas Rangers vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros53.31%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota TwinsPittsburgh Pirates51.01%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox66.58%
    Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers64.29%
    Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals52.29%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco GiantsLos Angeles Dodgers53.36%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics56.83%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles AngelsArizona Diamondbacks53.92%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego PadresPhiladelphia Phillies60.40%