Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games

  • 7/26/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • New York Yankees ML +110
    • Kansas City Royals ML -115
    • Cincinnati Reds ML -125
    • Colorado Rockies ML +220
    • Atlanta Braves ML +100
    • Kansas City Royals ML -135
    • Los Angeles Angels ML +110

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Philadelphia Phillies vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees54.35%0.1414+110
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals65.22%0.2066-115
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers63.27%0.0060-170
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh PiratesArizona Diamondbacks61.80%0.0754-135
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds65.81%0.1845-125
    Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore OriolesColorado Rockies45.34%0.4509+220
    Atlanta Braves vs Texas RangersAtlanta Braves55.95%0.1078+100
    Oakland Athletics vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros64.87%-0.0010-185
    Washington Nationals vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins67.74%-0.0245-225
    Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox43.24%0.1458+165
    Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers68.27%0.0855-170
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals70.85%0.2328-135
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox64.83%0.0956-145
    San Diego Padres vs St. Louis CardinalsSan Diego Padres46.26%0.0085+120
    New York Mets vs San Francisco GiantsNew York Mets52.56%0.0406+100
    Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels58.74%0.2335+110

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Philadelphia Phillies vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees54.35%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals65.22%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers63.27%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh PiratesArizona Diamondbacks61.80%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds65.81%
    Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles54.66%
    Atlanta Braves vs Texas RangersAtlanta Braves55.95%
    Oakland Athletics vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros64.87%
    Washington Nationals vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins67.74%
    Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White SoxChicago Cubs56.76%
    Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers68.27%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals70.85%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox64.83%
    San Diego Padres vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals53.74%
    New York Mets vs San Francisco GiantsNew York Mets52.56%
    Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels58.74%

  • 7/25/25 Recap

    Pretty bad day for my model and the sportsbook, but my picks still hit. The Rockies and Phillies were excellent +EV picks that went against my model but were close to 50%. It seems my model is decently calibrated now. Unfortunately, Guardians vs Royals has been postponed to tomorrow.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 5/14
    Sportsbook favorites won: 5/14
    Picks won: 4/6
    Net Units: +3.01u
    ROI: 50.17%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 33/63
    Sportsbook favorites won: 28/63
    Picks won: 16/27
    Net Units: +6.78u
    ROI: 25.11%

  • 7/25/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Colorado Rockies ML +180
    • Philadelphia Phillies ML +125
    • Boston Red Sox ML +100
    • Cincinnati Reds ML -110
    • Kansas City Royals ML -115
    • Washington Nationals ML +140
    • Los Angeles Angels ML +105

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee BrewersMiami Marlins35.73%-0.0354+170
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh PiratesArizona Diamondbacks56.62%0.0815-110
    Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore OriolesColorado Rockies46.52%0.3024+180
    Philadelphia Phillies vs New York YankeesPhiladelphia Phillies49.68%0.1178+125
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox64.57%0.2913+100
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds61.11%0.1672-110
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit TigersToronto Blue Jays52.92%0.0319-105
    San Diego Padres vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals47.60%-0.0004+110
    Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox39.68%-0.0081+150
    Atlanta Braves vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers64.83%0.0697-155
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals65.01%0.2158-115
    Oakland Athletics vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros60.87%0.0409-140
    Washington Nationals vs Minnesota TwinsWashington Nationals54.78%0.3146+140
    Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels56.09%0.1498+105
    New York Mets vs San Francisco GiantsNew York Mets45.75%-0.0165+115

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers64.27%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh PiratesArizona Diamondbacks56.62%
    Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles53.48%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees50.32%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox64.57%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds61.11%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit TigersToronto Blue Jays52.92%
    San Diego Padres vs St. Louis CardinalsSan Diego Padres52.40%
    Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White SoxChicago Cubs60.32%
    Atlanta Braves vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers64.83%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals65.01%
    Oakland Athletics vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros60.87%
    Washington Nationals vs Minnesota TwinsWashington Nationals54.78%
    Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels56.09%
    New York Mets vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants54.25%

  • 7/24/25 Recap

    Very strong day today. Only had two picks today, but both of them hit.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 3/4
    Sportsbook favorites won: 1/4
    Picks won: 2/2
    Net Units: +2.33u
    ROI: 116.50%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 28/49
    Sportsbook favorites won: 23/49
    Picks won: 12/21
    Net Units: +3.77u
    ROI: 17.95%

  • 7/24/25 Baseball Picks

    Sorry that I missed the Orioles vs Guardians match today. Not a lot of matches today overall though.

    My Picks

    • Toronto Blue Jays ML +115
    • Oakland Athletics ML +120

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit TigersToronto Blue Jays52.12%0.1205+115
    San Diego Padres vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals62.77%0.0482-150
    Oakland Athletics vs Houston AstrosOakland Athletics51.29%0.1181+120
    Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels59.71%-0.0028-150

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit TigersToronto Blue Jays52.12%
    San Diego Padres vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals62.77%
    Oakland Athletics vs Houston AstrosOakland Athletics51.29%
    Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels59.71%

  • 7/23/25 Recap

    Slightly positive day today. Stressful as hell though. The first 3 bets missed, and Red Sox and White Sox games were down to the wire. I almost thought I would miss all my bets today. Anyways, horrible day for both my favorites and the sportsbook’s favorites.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 5/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 5/15
    Picks won: 3/6
    Net Units: +0.66u
    ROI: 11.00%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 25/45
    Sportsbook favorites won: 22/45
    Picks won: 10/19
    Net Units: +1.44u
    ROI: 7.58%

  • 7/23/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Washington Nationals ML +110
    • Arizona Diamondbacks ML -125
    • Seattle Mariners ML -135
    • Boston Red Sox ML +125
    • Chicago White Sox ML +170
    • Texas Rangers ML -140

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Cincinnati Reds vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals53.27%0.1188+110
    San Diego Padres vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins48.17%0.0839+125
    San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves60.62%-0.0180-160
    Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates47.39%0.0188+115
    Los Angeles Angels vs New York MetsNew York Mets65.97%0.0292-180
    Kansas City Royals vs Chicago CubsKansas City Royals48.51%0.1642+140
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies40.08%0.0021+150
    Houston Astros vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks61.67%0.1100-125
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners69.14%0.2031-135
    Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers67.58%-0.0201-220
    Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians58.83%0.0413-130
    Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia PhilliesBoston Red Sox55.37%0.2458+125
    New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees52.52%0.0207+115
    Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox 47.65%0.2865+170
    Oakland Athletics vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers66.09%0.1301-140

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Cincinnati Reds vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals53.27%
    San Diego Padres vs Miami MarlinsSan Diego Padres51.83%
    San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves60.62%
    Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh PiratesDetroit Tigers52.61%
    Los Angeles Angels vs New York MetsNew York Mets65.97%
    Kansas City Royals vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs51.49%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado RockiesSt. Louis Cardinals59.92%
    Houston Astros vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks61.67%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners69.14%
    Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers67.58%
    Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians58.83%
    Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia PhilliesBoston Red Sox55.37%
    New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees52.52%
    Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays52.35%
    Oakland Athletics vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers66.09%

  • 7/22/25 Recap

    Slightly down day today. Unfortunately, neither of my riskier bets managed to hit, and somehow the Cardinals lost against the Rockies.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 10/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
    Picks won: 4/8
    Net Units: -0.66u
    ROI: -8.25%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 20/30
    Sportsbook favorites won: 17/30
    Picks won: 7/13
    Net Units: +0.78u
    ROI: 6.00%

  • 7/22/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Cleveland Guardians ML -170
    • Miami Marlins ML -125
    • Washington Nationals ML +120
    • Boston Red Sox ML +180
    • Chicago White Sox ML +190
    • Atlanta Braves ML -115
    • St. Louis Cardinals ML -170
    • Seattle Mariners ML -125

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians71.52%0.1372-170
    Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates47.32%-0.0063+110
    San Diego Padres vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins66.72%0.2010-125
    Cincinnati Reds vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals68.98%0.5037+120
    Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia PhilliesBoston Red Sox45.55%0.2755+180
    Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox46.70%0.3543+190
    New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays57.66%0.0552-120
    Los Angeles Angels vs New York MetsLos Angeles Angels40.73%-0.0022+145
    San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves59.02%0.1037-115
    Kansas City Royals vs Chicago CubsKansas City Royals34.31%0.0638+210
    Oakland Athletics vs Texas RangersOakland Athletics32.57%-0.0391+195
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado RockiesSt. Louis Cardinals71.39%0.1351-170
    Houston Astros vs Arizona DiamondbacksHouston Astros57.48%0.0174-130
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners65.57%0.1803-125
    Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles DodgersMinnesota Twins36.35%0.0542+190

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians71.52%
    Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh PiratesDetroit Tigers52.68%
    San Diego Padres vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins66.72%
    Cincinnati Reds vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals68.98%
    Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies54.45%
    Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays53.30%
    New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays57.66%
    Los Angeles Angels vs New York MetsNew York Mets59.27%
    San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves59.02%
    Kansas City Royals vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs65.69%
    Oakland Athletics vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers67.43%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado RockiesSt. Louis Cardinals71.39%
    Houston Astros vs Arizona DiamondbacksHouston Astros57.48%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners65.57%
    Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers63.65%

  • 7/21/25 Recap

    Fairly good day today. Pretty good start to the week, especially considering the lack of high-quality picks I had today.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 10/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
    Picks won: 3/5
    Net Units: +1.44u
    ROI: 28.80%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 10/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
    Picks won: 3/5
    Net Units: +1.44u
    ROI: 28.80%