Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games

  • 7/31/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Cincinnati Reds ML -185
    • Seattle Mariners ML -180

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Tampa Bay Rays vs New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays53.34%-0.0132-115
    Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds69.45%0.0696-185
    Texas Rangers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners69.56%0.0852-180

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Tampa Bay Rays vs New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays53.34%
    Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds69.45%
    Texas Rangers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners69.56%

  • 7/30/25 Recap

    Really solid day today. Rays vs Yankees was cinema towards the end of the game. Unfortunately, said cinema is why the Rays lost.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 7/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15
    Picks won: 5/7
    Net Units: +3.33u
    ROI: 47.57%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 22/46
    Sportsbook favorites won: 22/46
    Picks won: 17/27
    Net Units: +10.7u
    ROI: 39.63%

  • 7/30/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Toronto Blue Jays ML +105
    • Boston Red Sox ML +100
    • Kansas City Royals ML -120
    • Chicago White Sox ML +120
    • New York Mets ML -110
    • Tampa Bay Rays ML +115
    • Oakland Athletics ML +125

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays64.65%0.3254+105
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Detroit TigersArizona Diamondbacks50.78%0.0663+110
    Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota TwinsBoston Red Sox58.86%0.1773+100
    Washington Nationals vs Houston AstrosWashington Nationals52.07%0.0415+100
    Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals64.86%0.1869-120
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox59.42%0.3073+120
    Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers57.29%0.0485-120
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco GiantsPittsburgh Pirates43.64%0.1784+170
    New York Mets vs San Diego PadresNew York Mets67.48%0.2888-110
    Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland GuardiansColorado Rockies41.14%0.0696+160
    Tampa Bay Rays vs New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays64.13%0.3788+115
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds43.68%0.0484+140
    Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsMiami Marlins42.67%-0.0399+125
    Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles AngelsTexas Rangers54.65%-0.0162-125
    Seattle Mariners vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics51.89%0.1674+125

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays64.65%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Detroit TigersArizona Diamondbacks50.78%
    Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota TwinsBoston Red Sox58.86%
    Washington Nationals vs Houston AstrosWashington Nationals52.07%
    Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals64.86%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox59.42%
    Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers57.29%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants56.36%
    New York Mets vs San Diego PadresNew York Mets67.48%
    Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians58.86%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays64.13%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati RedsLos Angeles Dodgers56.32%
    Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals57.33%
    Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles AngelsTexas Rangers54.65%
    Seattle Mariners vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics51.89%

  • 7/29/25 Recap

    Very mediocre day today. Had tons of picks, a lot of which were high probability, but only half of them hit. Especially disappointed by the Blue Jays loss in the second match of the doubleheaders since that is my first 80% probability pick in a very long time, and it was a loss.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 8/16
    Sportsbook favorites won: 10/16
    Picks won: 6/12
    Net Units: -0.15u
    ROI: -1.25%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 15/31
    Sportsbook favorites won: 16/31
    Picks won: 12/20
    Net Units: +7.37u
    ROI: 36.85%

  • 7/29/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Toronto Blue Jays ML +110
    • Toronto Blue Jays ML -135
    • Colorado Rockies ML +180
    • Cincinnati Reds ML +125
    • Minnesota Twins ML -110
    • Kansas City Royals ML -125
    • Chicago White Sox ML +155
    • Milwaukee Brewers ML -115
    • Los Angeles Angels ML -125
    • San Diego Padres ML +105
    • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +135
    • Oakland Athletics ML +100

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays52.12%0.0945+110
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays80.41%0.3990-135
    Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland GuardiansColorado Rockies51.38%0.4385+180
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers61.93%0.0590-140
    Tampa Bay Rays vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees67.04%0.0258-190
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds53.04%0.1935+125
    Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins68.60%0.3103-110
    Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals65.87%0.1856-125
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox56.14%0.4316+155
    Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers61.29%0.1339-115
    Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals69.51%0.1051-170
    Washington Nationals vs Houston AstrosWashington Nationals50.59%0.0876+115
    Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels61.79%0.1122-125
    New York Mets vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres55.76%0.1432+105
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco GiantsPittsburgh Pirates52.91%0.2435+135
    Seattle Mariners vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics57.16%0.1432+100

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays52.12%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays80.41%
    Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland GuardiansColorado Rockies51.38%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers61.93%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees67.04%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds53.04%
    Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins68.60%
    Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals65.87%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox56.14%
    Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers61.29%
    Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals69.51%
    Washington Nationals vs Houston AstrosWashington Nationals50.59%
    Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels61.79%
    New York Mets vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres55.76%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco GiantsPittsburgh Pirates52.91%
    Seattle Mariners vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics57.16%

  • 7/28/25 Recap

    Incredible day today. Somehow my high probability picks missed, but I’m not complaining considering all of my lower probability picks with juicy odds hit. Definitely my best day of picks since starting this project. What a way to start the week.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 7/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15
    Picks won: 6/8
    Net Units: +7.52u
    ROI: 94.00%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 7/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15
    Picks won: 6/8
    Net Units: +7.52u
    ROI: 94.00%

  • 7/28/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Colorado Rockies ML +220
    • Arizona Diamondbacks ML +115
    • Los Angeles Dodgers ML -150
    • Kansas City Royals ML +140
    • Chicago White Sox ML +180
    • Milwaukee Brewers ML -105
    • Washington Nationals ML +225
    • Los Angeles Angels ML +165

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles53.14%0.0361-105
    Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland GuardiansColorado Rockies43.47%0.3910+220
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Detroit TigersArizona Diamondbacks68.12%0.4645+115
    Tampa Bay Rays vs New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays47.22%-0.0084+110
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati RedsLos Angeles Dodgers70.52%0.1777-150
    Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota TwinsBoston Red Sox52.23%-0.0234-115
    Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals68.63%0.6471+140
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox50.11%0.4030+180
    Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers58.46%0.1399-105
    Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals53.93%0.0085-115
    Washington Nationals vs Houston AstrosWashington Nationals46.32%0.5054+225
    Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels47.76%0.2655+165
    New York Mets vs San Diego PadresNew York Mets47.20%-0.0088+110
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco GiantsPittsburgh Pirates47.09%-0.0110+110
    Seattle Mariners vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics48.86%-0.0227+100

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles53.14%
    Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians56.53%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Detroit TigersArizona Diamondbacks68.12%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees52.78%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati RedsLos Angeles Dodgers70.52%
    Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota TwinsBoston Red Sox52.23%
    Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals68.63%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox50.11%
    Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers58.46%
    Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals53.93%
    Washington Nationals vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros53.68%
    Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles AngelsTexas Rangers52.24%
    New York Mets vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres52.80%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants52.91%
    Seattle Mariners vs Oakland AthleticsSeattle Mariners51.14%

  • 7/27/25 Recap

    Very mediocre day today. Had a ton of picks, but even the higher probability ones like the Cardinals failed to hit. I don’t even want to talk about the Giants game; they had so many opportunities to win but choked all of them. And well, the Mets have swept them now.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 8/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
    Picks won: 5/10
    Net Units: -0.38u
    ROI: -3.80%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 47/94
    Sportsbook favorites won: 43/94
    Picks won: 23/44
    Net Units: +3.05u
    ROI: 6.93%

  • 7/27/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Colorado Rockies ML +170
    • Boston Red Sox ML -105
    • New York Yankees ML +115
    • Cincinnati Reds ML -105
    • Detroit Tigers ML -120
    • Kansas City Royals ML -135
    • Chicago White Sox ML +140
    • St. Louis Cardinals ML -130
    • Atlanta Braves ML +105
    • San Francisco Giants ML +105

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore OriolesColorado Rockies49.48%0.3359+170
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox55.84%0.0889-105
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh PiratesArizona Diamondbacks44.81%0.0307+130
    Philadelphia Phillies vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees55.68%0.1970+115
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds56.32%0.0982-105
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers59.96%0.0973-120
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals71.99%0.2526-135
    Oakland Athletics vs Houston AstrosOakland Athletics48.39%0.0404+115
    Washington Nationals vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins60.11%-0.0322-165
    Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox59.10%0.4184+140
    Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee BrewersMiami Marlins45.26%0.0862+140
    San Diego Padres vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals67.60%0.1966-130
    Atlanta Braves vs Texas RangersAtlanta Braves58.02%0.1894+105
    Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels47.40%0.1377+140
    New York Mets vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants60.13%0.2326+105

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles50.52%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox55.84%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates55.19%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees55.68%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds56.32%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers59.96%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals71.99%
    Oakland Athletics vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros51.61%
    Washington Nationals vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins60.11%
    Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox59.10%
    Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers54.74%
    San Diego Padres vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals67.60%
    Atlanta Braves vs Texas RangersAtlanta Braves58.02%
    Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles AngelsSeattle Mariners52.60%
    New York Mets vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants60.13%

  • 7/26/25 Recap

    Horrendous day today. I think this is my worst day to date. Last Saturday being a good day deceived me into thinking Saturdays were not cursed, but I’m back to having horrible Saturdays. On a similar note, I also seem to be cursed whenever there is a double-header. Honestly, the situation for a double header makes the teams play differently and they are often decently tired by the second match, so in the future, I may only bet on the first of the double-header matches or avoid them entirely.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 6/16
    Sportsbook favorites won: 7/16
    Picks won: 2/7
    Net Units: -3.35u
    ROI: -48.86%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 39/79
    Sportsbook favorites won: 35/79
    Picks won: 18/34
    Net Units: +3.43u
    ROI: 10.09%