Bayesball Picks

My Picks

• Pittsburgh Pirates ML +120
• Miami Marlins ML -105
• Washington Nationals ML -130
• Kansas City Royals ML +215
• Atlanta Braves ML +125
• Texas Rangers ML -130
• Toronto Blue Jays ML -265
• Arizona Diamondbacks ML +110
• Los Angeles Dodgers ML -200

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	59.77%	0.3150	+120
Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	63.84%	0.0342	-160
Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	57.76%	0.1263	-105
Oakland Athletics vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	64.49%	0.1416	-130
Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies	Baltimore Orioles	47.45%	0.0439	+120
Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox	Kansas City Royals	47.25%	0.4885	+215
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets	Cleveland Guardians	42.23%	-0.0077	+135
Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	56.64%	0.2745	+125
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	63.50%	-0.0221	-185
New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	65.71%	0.1631	-130
Toronto Blue Jays vs Colorado Rockies	Toronto Blue Jays	73.12%	0.0090	-265
Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	57.29%	0.0312	-125
San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	64.83%	0.3615	+110
Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners	Chicago White Sox	34.83%	0.1147	+220
St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	67.86%	0.0180	-200

Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Team	Probability
San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	59.77%
Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	63.84%
Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	57.76%
Oakland Athletics vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	64.49%
Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	52.55%
Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	52.75%
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets	New York Mets	57.77%
Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	56.64%
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	63.50%
New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	65.71%
Toronto Blue Jays vs Colorado Rockies	Toronto Blue Jays	73.12%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	57.29%
San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	64.83%
Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	65.17%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	67.86%

My Picks

• Pittsburgh Pirates ML +110
• Miami Marlins ML -135
• Cleveland Guardians ML +170
• Atlanta Braves ML +120
• Los Angeles Angels ML -125
• Arizona Diamondbacks ML +115

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	63.84%	0.3406	+110
Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	72.70%	0.0759	-210
Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	63.38%	0.1028	-135
Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	61.04%	0.0071	-155
Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	62.28%	-0.0222	-175
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets	Cleveland Guardians	44.68%	0.2063	+170
Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	60.82%	0.3381	+120
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	Cincinnati Reds	47.40%	0.0190	+115
New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers	New York Yankees	61.92%	0.0217	-155
Toronto Blue Jays vs Colorado Rockies	Toronto Blue Jays	74.06%	0.0590	-230
Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	59.30%	0.0673	-125
San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	63.30%	0.3610	+115
St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers	St. Louis Cardinals	40.15%	0.0038	+150

Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Team	Probability
San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	63.84%
Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	72.70%
Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	63.38%
Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	61.04%
Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	62.28%
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets	New York Mets	55.32%
Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	60.82%
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	52.60%
New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers	New York Yankees	61.92%
Toronto Blue Jays vs Colorado Rockies	Toronto Blue Jays	74.06%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	59.30%
San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	63.30%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	59.85%

My Picks

• Boston Red Sox ML +105
• Tampa Bay Rays ML +180
• Washington Nationals ML +160
• New York Mets ML -175
• Miami Marlins ML +105
• Oakland Athletics ML -105
• Chicago White Sox ML +120
• Seattle Mariners ML +125

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	54.81%	0.1235	+105
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	44.94%	0.2583	+180
Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds*	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	55.64%	0.4468	+160
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays	Kansas City Royals	44.50%	-0.0433	+115
San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets	New York Mets	69.66%	0.0937	-175
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	Minnesota Twins	45.56%	0.0933	+140
New York Yankees vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	56.12%	0.1505	+105
Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs	Baltimore Orioles	41.04%	0.0669	+160
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies	Pittsburgh Pirates	67.29%	0.0498	-180
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Oakland Athletics	Oakland Athletics	74.38%	0.4503	-105
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	Chicago White Sox	50.06%	0.1013	+120
St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres	St. Louis Cardinals	43.66%	0.1352	+160
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	55.64%	0.2519	+125
Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies	Detroit Tigers	36.79%	-0.0435	+160

Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Team	Probability
Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	54.81%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays	Los Angeles Dodgers	55.06%
Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds*	N/A	N/A
Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	55.64%
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	55.50%
San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets	New York Mets	69.66%
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians	54.44%
New York Yankees vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	56.12%
Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	58.96%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies	Pittsburgh Pirates	67.29%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Oakland Athletics	Oakland Athletics	74.38%
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	Chicago White Sox	50.06%
St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	56.34%
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	55.64%
Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	63.21%

*This game started yesterday. I had Reds originally at ~52%. The game has since started to a 1-0 Reds lead with baserunners on first and second base. Since this is a suspended game, play will resume from this point forward. My model changed to Braves 67% since then, but I will not pick a winner for a match that has already started. Plus, I still have the Reds ML bet active. As such, I will treat this game as one from yesterday, and not as one from today.

My Picks

• Washington Nationals ML +155
• New York Mets ML -200
• Seattle Mariners ML -120
• Miami Marlins ML +100
• Cincinnati Reds ML +105
• Oakland Athletics ML -110
• St. Louis Cardinals ML +125

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	50.87%	0.0073	+100
Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs	Baltimore Orioles	35.34%	-0.0105	+180
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays	Kansas City Royals	48.23%	0.0610	+120
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	38.14%	0.0680	+180
Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	53.56%	0.0230	-110
Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	51.14%	0.3041	+155
Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	55.14%	0.0312	-115
San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets	New York Mets	73.95%	0.1093	-200
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	61.90%	0.1328	-120
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians	61.94%	-0.0275	-175
New York Yankees vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	69.18%	0.3836	+100
Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	52.22%	0.0704	+105
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Oakland Athletics	Oakland Athletics	66.14%	0.2633	-110
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	Chicago White Sox	46.42%	0.0444	+125
St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres	St. Louis Cardinals	58.87%	0.3246	+125

Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Team	Probability
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	50.87%
Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	64.66%
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	51.77%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies	Pittsburgh Pirates	61.86%
Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	53.56%
Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	51.14%
Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	55.14%
San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets	New York Mets	73.95%
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	61.90%
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians	61.94%
New York Yankees vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	69.18%
Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	52.22%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Oakland Athletics	Oakland Athletics	66.14%
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	53.58%
St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres	St. Louis Cardinals	58.87%

My Picks

• Cincinnati Reds ML -140
• Washington Nationals ML +130
• New York Mets ML -145
• Tampa Bay Rays ML +110
• St. Louis Cardinals ML +150
• Oakland Athletics ML -125
• Seattle Mariners ML -190

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probabilities	EV	Odds
Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	68.79%	0.1763	-140
Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs	Baltimore Orioles	47.70%	0.0971	+130
Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	59.17%	-0.0118	-150
Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	54.89%	0.2626	+130
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays	Kansas City Royals	43.01%	-0.0107	+130
Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	50.20%	0.0290	+105
San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets	New York Mets	65.68%	0.1099	-145
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	Minnesota Twins	50.66%	0.0386	+105
New York Yankees vs Miami Marlins	New York Yankees	70.09%	0.1004	-175
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	56.93%	0.1956	+110
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	47.01%	0.0108	+115
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	Chicago White Sox	43.97%	-0.0414	+120
St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres	St. Louis Cardinals	46.41%	0.1602	+150
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Oakland Athletics	Oakland Athletics	63.47%	0.1425	-125
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	75.79%	0.1596	-190

Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Team	Probabilities
Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	68.79%
Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	52.30%
Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	59.17%
Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	54.89%
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	56.99%
Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	50.20%
San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets	New York Mets	65.68%
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	Minnesota Twins	50.66%
New York Yankees vs Miami Marlins	New York Yankees	70.09%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	56.93%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies	Pittsburgh Pirates	52.99%
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	56.03%
St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	53.59%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Oakland Athletics	Oakland Athletics	63.47%
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	75.79%