Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games

  • 8/10/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Kansas City Royals ML -130, 7.5%
    • Athletics ML +105, 15%
    • Los Angeles Angels ML +175, 5%
    • Chicago White Sox ML +120, 10%
    • New York Mets ML +100, 7.5%
    • Boston Red Sox ML +110, 10%
    • Toronto Blue Jays ML +155, 15%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals60.47%0.0702-130
    Athletics vs Baltimore OriolesAthletics61.48%0.2604+105
    Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds53.58%0.0019-115
    Miami Marlins vs Atlanta BravesMiami Marlins49.94%0.0488+110
    Houston Astros vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees68.63%-0.0049-220
    Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit TigersLos Angeles Angels39.82%0.0950+175
    Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox54.46%0.1981+120
    New York Mets vs Milwaukee BrewersNew York Mets54.50%0.0900+100
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Texas RangersPhiladelphia Phillies64.94%0.0455-165
    Washington Nationals vs San Francisco GiantsWashington Nationals45.63%0.0038+120
    Colorado Rockies vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks73.08%-0.0135-285
    Boston Red Sox vs San Diego PadresBoston Red Sox54.76%0.1501+110
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle MarinersTampa Bay Rays36.89%-0.0223+165
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles DodgersToronto Blue Jays53.85%0.3732+155
    Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis CardinalsChicago Cubs57.43%0.0164-130

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals60.47%
    Athletics vs Baltimore OriolesAthletics61.48%
    Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds53.58%
    Miami Marlins vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves50.06%
    Houston Astros vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees68.63%
    Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers60.18%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox54.46%
    New York Mets vs Milwaukee BrewersNew York Mets54.50%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Texas RangersPhiladelphia Phillies64.94%
    Washington Nationals vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants54.37%
    Colorado Rockies vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks73.08%
    Boston Red Sox vs San Diego PadresBoston Red Sox54.76%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners63.11%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles DodgersToronto Blue Jays53.85%
    Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis CardinalsChicago Cubs57.43%

  • 8/9/25 Recap

    Horrible day today. I just cannot catch a break this week.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 9/16
    Sportsbook favorites won: 8/16
    Picks won: 2/6
    Net Units: -2.03u
    ROI: -33.83%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 40/78
    Sportsbook favorites won: 41/78
    Picks won: 17/40
    Net Units: -6.80u
    ROI: -17.00%

  • 8/9/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • San Francisco Giants ML -170, 7.5%
    • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +100, 12.5%
    • Athletics ML +100, 5%
    • Chicago White Sox ML +120, 25%
    • Atlanta Braves ML -105, 22.5%
    • St. Louis Cardinals ML -110, 15%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Miami Marlins vs Atlanta BravesMiami Marlins55.68%0.0413-115
    Houston Astros vs New York YankeesHouston Astros59.31%0.0497-130
    Washington Nationals vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants66.78%0.0619-170
    Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit TigersLos Angeles Angels47.95%0.0068+110
    Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates59.55%0.1911+100
    Athletics vs Baltimore OriolesAthletics54.03%0.0807+100
    Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals55.74%0.0034-125
    Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox70.86%0.5589+120
    New York Mets vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers52.36%0.0472+100
    Miami Marlins vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves70.12%0.3674-105
    Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals62.90%0.2014-110
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers59.85%0.0415-135
    Colorado Rockies vs Arizona DiamondbacksColorado Rockies39.15%0.1548+195
    Boston Red Sox vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres57.40%-0.0414-150
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers65.10%0.0221-175
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners57.64%0.0029-135

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Miami Marlins vs Atlanta BravesMiami Marlins55.68%
    Houston Astros vs New York YankeesHouston Astros59.31%
    Washington Nationals vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants66.78%
    Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers52.05%
    Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates59.55%
    Athletics vs Baltimore OriolesAthletics54.03%
    Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals55.74%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox70.86%
    New York Mets vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers52.36%
    Miami Marlins vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves70.12%
    Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals62.90%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers59.85%
    Colorado Rockies vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks60.85%
    Boston Red Sox vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres57.40%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers65.10%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners57.64%

  • 8/8/25 Recap

    Model did pretty well today. Unfortunately, my picks did not.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 10/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
    Picks won: 3/7
    Net Units: -0.88u
    ROI: -12.57%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 31/62
    Sportsbook favorites won: 33/62
    Picks won: 15/34
    Net Units: -4.77u
    ROI: -14.03%

  • 8/8/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +105
    • New York Yankees ML +105
    • Los Angeles Angels ML +285
    • Atlanta Braves ML +110
    • Chicago White Sox ML +140
    • St. Louis Cardinals ML +135
    • San Francisco Giants ML -180

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates65.49%0.2247+105
    Athletics vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles57.23%0.0301-125
    Houston Astros vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees57.03%0.1692+105
    Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit TigersLos Angeles Angels34.12%0.3134+285
    Miami Marlins vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves53.94%0.1353+110
    Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox63.70%0.5287+140
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers48.34%0.0393+115
    Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins59.14%0.0113-140
    New York Mets vs Milwaukee BrewersNew York Mets52.15%0.0952+110
    Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals56.15%0.3196+135
    Colorado Rockies vs Arizona DiamondbacksColorado Rockies38.49%0.1739+205
    Boston Red Sox vs San Diego PadresBoston Red Sox37.23%-0.0320+160
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners60.05%0.0148-145
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers60.50%-0.0018-155
    Washington Nationals vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants74.27%0.1586-180

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates65.49%
    Athletics vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles57.23%
    Houston Astros vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees57.03%
    Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers65.88%
    Miami Marlins vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves53.94%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox63.70%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Texas RangersPhiladelphia Phillies51.66%
    Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins59.14%
    New York Mets vs Milwaukee BrewersNew York Mets52.15%
    Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals56.15%
    Colorado Rockies vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks61.51%
    Boston Red Sox vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres62.77%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners60.05%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers60.50%
    Washington Nationals vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants74.27%

  • 8/7/25 Recap

    Yet another bad day. This week has been awful. White Sox choked horrendously. If they hadn’t, I’d be up a decent bit today.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 2/4
    Sportsbook favorites won: 2/4
    Picks won: 1/3
    Net Units: -1.41u
    ROI: -47.00%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 21/47
    Sportsbook favorites won: 23/47
    Picks won: 12/27
    Net Units: -3.89u
    ROI: -14.41%

  • 8/7/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Washington Nationals ML +115
    • Chicago White Sox ML +245
    • Pittsburgh Pirates ML -170

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Athletics vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals62.62%0.3463+115
    Chicago White Sox vs Seattle MarinersChicago White Sox38.21%0.3184+245
    Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates64.59%0.0269-170
    Miami Marlins vs Atlanta BravesMiami Marlins 50.33%-0.0387-110

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Athletics vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals62.62%
    Chicago White Sox vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners61.79%
    Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates64.59%
    Miami Marlins vs Atlanta BravesMiami Marlins 50.33%

  • 8/6/25 Recap

    Pretty bad day today. Luckily, I did figure out a small issue with my model and changed it so it should be better and more consistent going forwards.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 6/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15
    Picks won: 4/9
    Net Units: -0.78u
    ROI: -8.67%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 19/43
    Sportsbook favorites won: 21/43
    Picks won: 11/24
    Net Units: -2.48u
    ROI: -10.33%

  • 8/6/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +135
    • New York Yankees ML -150
    • Colorado Rockies ML +190
    • Los Angeles Angels ML +100
    • Houston Astros ML -120
    • Washington Nationals ML +110
    • Kansas City Royals ML +125
    • Milwaukee Brewers ML +105
    • Arizona Diamondbacks ML +125

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates53.32%0.2530+135
    Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia PhilliesBaltimore Orioles39.73%-0.0465+140
    Cleveland Guardians vs New York MetsCleveland Guardians45.30%0.1325+150
    Minnesota Twins vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers60.73%N/AN/A
    Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs59.45%0.0166-140
    New York Yankees vs Texas RangersNew York Yankees70.18%0.1720-150
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies 46.29%0.3425+190
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels62.18%0.2435+100
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers68.96%-0.0070-230
    Houston Astros vs Miami MarlinsHouston Astros74.87%0.3702-120
    Oakland Athletics vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals62.84%0.3196+110
    Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red SoxKansas City Royals54.88%0.2347+125
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta BravesMilwaukee Brewers47.24%-0.0315+105
    San Diego Padres vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks69.80%0.5706+125
    Chicago White Sox vs Seattle MarinersChicago White Sox35.89%0.1844+230

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates53.32%
    Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies60.27%
    Cleveland Guardians vs New York MetsNew York Mets54.70%
    Minnesota Twins vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers60.73%
    Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs59.45%
    New York Yankees vs Texas RangersNew York Yankees70.18%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Colorado RockiesToronto Blue Jays 53.71%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels62.18%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers68.96%
    Houston Astros vs Miami MarlinsHouston Astros74.87%
    Oakland Athletics vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals62.84%
    Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red SoxKansas City Royals54.88%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves52.76%
    San Diego Padres vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks69.80%
    Chicago White Sox vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners64.11%

  • 8/5/25 Recap

    Horrible day today. Might be the worst day since I’ve started this project. Was so happy yesterday to break my losing streak but this day was almost worse than the whole streak combined maybe.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 6/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
    Picks won: 3/9
    Net Units: -4.35u
    ROI: -48.33%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 13/28
    Sportsbook favorites won: 14/28
    Picks won: 7/15
    Net Units: -1.70u
    ROI: -11.33%