Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games

  • 8/15/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +180, 10%
    • Cincinnati Reds ML +120, 10%
    • Texas Rangers ML -110, 5%
    • Cleveland Guardians ML -120, 15%
    • Detroit Tigers ML -135, 5%
    • St. Louis Cardinals ML +115, 10%
    • San Diego Padres ML +135, 10%
    • San Francisco Giants ML -140, 7.5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago CubsPittsburgh Pirates47.87%0.3404+180
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds54.60%0.2012+120
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals37.30%-0.0301+160
    Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers56.58%0.0807-110
    Seattle Mariners vs New York MetsSeattle Mariners50.76%-0.0250-105
    Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians68.80%0.2590-120
    Miami Marlins vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox69.73%0.0738-185
    Baltimore Orioles vs Houston AstrosBaltimore Orioles32.27%-0.0318+200
    Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota TwinsDetroit Tigers62.11%0.0808-135
    Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals65.07%-0.0045-190
    New York Yankees vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals54.80%0.1782+115
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado RockiesArizona Diamondbacks66.47%-0.0162-210
    Los Angeles Angels vs AthleticsAthletics52.22%0.0445+100
    San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles DodgersSan Diego Padres53.53%0.2580+135
    Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants64.15%0.0970-140

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs52.13%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds54.60%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies62.70%
    Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers56.58%
    Seattle Mariners vs New York MetsSeattle Mariners50.76%
    Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians68.80%
    Miami Marlins vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox69.73%
    Baltimore Orioles vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros67.73%
    Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota TwinsDetroit Tigers62.11%
    Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals65.07%
    New York Yankees vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals54.80%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado RockiesArizona Diamondbacks66.47%
    Los Angeles Angels vs AthleticsAthletics52.22%
    San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles DodgersSan Diego Padres53.53%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants64.15%

  • 8/14/25 Recap

    Pretty poor day today for both me and the sportsbook. I had a lot of 50% swing matches today though, one of which was one of my two picks.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 2/7
    Sportsbook favorites won: 3/7
    Picks won: 1/2
    Net Units: +0.85u
    ROI: 42.50%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 24/48
    Sportsbook favorites won: 22/48
    Picks won: 10/20
    Net Units: +1.62u
    ROI: 8.10%

  • 8/14/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Miami Marlins ML +110, 5%
    • Washington Nationals ML +185, 12.5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles44.42%-0.0450+115
    Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue JaysChicago Cubs53.56%-0.0199-120
    Miami Marlins vs Cleveland GuardiansMiami Marlins52.16%0.0955+110
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals48.16%0.3726+185
    Atlanta Braves vs New York MetsNew York Mets71.55%0.0590-210
    Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins34.85%-0.0243+180
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies38.55%-0.0170+155

    My Model’s Favored Winner Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore OriolesSeattle Mariners55.58%
    Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue JaysChicago Cubs53.56%
    Miami Marlins vs Cleveland GuardiansMiami Marlins52.16%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies51.84%
    Atlanta Braves vs New York MetsNew York Mets71.55%
    Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota TwinsDetroit Tigers65.15%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado RockiesArizona Diamondbacks61.45%

  • 8/13/25 Recap

    Very good day today. New model is cooking. Obviously it’s a bit early to call it a good model, since I lack large numbers and could just be getting lucky rn.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 9/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 5/15
    Picks won: 5/6
    Net Units: +4.27u
    ROI: 71.17%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 22/41
    Sportsbook favorites won: 19/41
    Picks won: 9/18
    Net Units: +0.77u
    ROI: 4.28%

  • 8/13/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +185, 10%
    • Arizona Diamondbacks ML +130, 7.5%
    • San Diego Padres ML -175, 15%
    • Cincinnati Reds ML +120, 5%
    • Miami Marlins ML +105, 10%
    • Minnesota Twins ML +115, 7.5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Washington Nationals vs Kansas City RoyalsWashington Nationals38.11%-0.0093+160
    Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox47.43%-0.0278+105
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee BrewersPittsburgh Pirates47.03%0.3405+185
    Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis CardinalsColorado Rockies32.91%-0.0292+195
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas RangersArizona Diamondbacks50.00%0.1500+130
    San Diego Padres vs San Francisco GiantsSan Diego Padres73.77%0.1582-175
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds50.00%0.1000+120
    Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles44.35%-0.0465+115
    Miami Marlins vs Cleveland GuardiansMiami Marlins57.19%0.1724+105
    Minnesota Twins vs New York YankeesMinnesota Twins53.86%0.1580+115
    Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays47.75%0.0028+110
    Boston Red Sox vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros64.72%0.0096-180
    Atlanta Braves vs New York MetsNew York Mets70.48%0.0220-220
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Dodgers70.82%0.0197-225
    Tampa Bay Rays vs AthleticsTampa Bay Rays55.24%-0.0388-135

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Washington Nationals vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals61.89%
    Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White SoxDetroit Tigers52.57%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers52.97%
    Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals67.09%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas RangersArizona Diamondbacks50.00%
    San Diego Padres vs San Francisco GiantsSan Diego Padres73.77%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds50.00%
    Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore OriolesSeattle Mariners55.65%
    Miami Marlins vs Cleveland GuardiansMiami Marlins57.19%
    Minnesota Twins vs New York YankeesMinnesota Twins53.86%
    Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays52.25%
    Boston Red Sox vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros64.72%
    Atlanta Braves vs New York MetsNew York Mets70.48%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Dodgers70.82%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs AthleticsTampa Bay Rays55.24%

  • 8/12/25 Recap

    Pretty good first day for my new model. Hopefully it stays consistent. Sucks that Dodgers choked at the end there.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 9/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
    Picks won: 4/7
    Net Units: +1.50u
    ROI: 21.43%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 13/26
    Sportsbook favorites won: 14/26
    Picks won: 4/12
    Net Units: -3.50u
    ROI: -29.17%

  • 8/12/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Cleveland Guardians ML -145, 12.5%
    • Washington Nationals ML +170, 5%
    • Chicago White Sox ML +155, 5%
    • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +110, 20%
    • Arizona Diamondbacks ML +135, 20%
    • Boston Red Sox ML -110, 7.5%
    • Los Angeles Dodgers ML -195, 20%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles42.91%%0.0083+135
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds45.15%0.0159+125
    Miami Marlins vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians68.07%0.1504-145
    Minnesota Twins vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees69.95%-0.0066-240
    Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays57.38%-0.0016-135
    Atlanta Braves vs New York MetsNew York Mets61.25%0.0229-150
    Washington Nationals vs Kansas City RoyalsWashington Nationals42.45%0.1463+170
    Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox43.48%0.1088+155
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee BrewersPittsburgh Pirates65.30%0.3713+110
    Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis CardinalsColorado Rockies36.59%-0.0122+170
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas RangersArizona Diamondbacks60.58%0.4237+135
    Boston Red Sox vs Houston AstrosBoston Red Sox57.70%0.1021-110
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Dodgers76.92%0.1615-195
    San Diego Padres vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants57.62%0.0545-120
    Tampa Bay Rays vs AthleticsAthletics53.39%-0.0016-115

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore OriolesSeattle Mariners57.09%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati RedsPhiladelphia Phillies54.85%
    Miami Marlins vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians68.07%
    Minnesota Twins vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees69.95%
    Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays57.38%
    Atlanta Braves vs New York MetsNew York Mets61.25%
    Washington Nationals vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals57.55%
    Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White SoxDetroit Tigers56.52%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee BrewersPittsburgh Pirates65.30%
    Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals63.41%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas RangersArizona Diamondbacks60.58%
    Boston Red Sox vs Houston AstrosBoston Red Sox57.70%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Dodgers76.92%
    San Diego Padres vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants57.62%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs AthleticsAthletics53.39%

  • 8/11/25 Recap

    Horrible day for my model, but I made a big mistake and forgot to update my dataset and team records. Really bad slip-up to make, since that affects quite a few of my features. Also, I’m almost done with testing and analysis for my new model, which I’ll use starting now.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 4/11
    Sportsbook favorites won: 6/11
    Picks won: 0/5
    Net Units: -5.00u
    ROI: -100%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 4/11
    Sportsbook favorites won: 6/11
    Picks won: 0/5
    Net Units: -5.00u
    ROI: -100%

  • 8/11/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks

    • Cincinnati Reds ML -125, 7.5%
    • Minnesota Twins ML +160, 12.5%
    • Washington Nationals ML +125, 22.5%
    • Chicago White Sox ML +130, 7.5%
    • Arizona Diamondbacks ML +145, 5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds61.36%0.1045-125
    Minnesota Twins vs New York YankeesMinnesota Twins51.48%0.3385+160
    Washington Nationals vs Kansas City RoyalsWashington Nationals67.74%0.5241+125
    Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox50.53%0.1621+130
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee BrewersPittsburgh Pirates36.46%0.0210+180
    Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis CardinalsColorado Rockies34.54%-0.0156+185
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas RangersArizona Diamondbacks46.75%0.1454+145
    Boston Red Sox vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros43.05%0.0547+145
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels38.35%-0.0030+160
    San Diego Padres vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants57.70%0.0213-130
    Tampa Bay Rays vs AthleticsAthletics54.13%0.0122-115

    Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds61.36%
    Minnesota Twins vs New York YankeesMinnesota Twins51.48%
    Washington Nationals vs Kansas City RoyalsWashington Nationals67.74%
    Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox50.53%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers63.54%
    Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals65.46%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers53.25%
    Boston Red Sox vs Houston AstrosBoston Red Sox56.95%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Dodgers61.65%
    San Diego Padres vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants57.70%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs AthleticsAthletics54.13%

  • 8/10/25 Recap

    That wraps up the worst week I hope I will ever have in this project. Luckily, I did figure out that the SVM I had just swapped out was not very consistent and has been dropping in accuracy the past couple of weeks. I think it might have been overfitting but I’m not certain.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 9/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
    Picks won: 3/7
    Net Units: -0.20u
    ROI: -2.86%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 49/93
    Sportsbook favorites won: 49/93
    Picks won: 20/47
    Net Units: -7.00u
    ROI: -14.89%