Model-Based EV Picks
Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games
Decent day today. But started the day with two losses which was a bit stressful.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 12/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
Picks won: 4/7
Net Units: +1.30u
ROI: 18.57%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 27/43
Sportsbook favorites won: 25/43
Picks won: 11/21
Net Units: +4.35u
ROI: 20.71%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | Washington Nationals | 48.33% | 0.5467 | +220 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Tampa Bay Rays | 69.11% | 0.1195 | -160 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 56.59% | 0.1600 | +105 |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | San Diego Padres | 46.93% | 0.0090 | +115 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | 55.21% | -0.0393 | -135 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 63.79% | -0.0176 | -185 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 72.30% | 0.2073 | -150 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals | 58.56% | 0.0541 | -125 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.87% | 0.1089 | +120 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.21% | 0.3037 | +145 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Angels | 42.26% | -0.0068 | +135 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros | Colorado Rockies | 35.76% | 0.1801 | +230 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds | 48.68% | 0.3143 | +170 |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | Chicago Cubs | 58.85% | 0.0594 | -125 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Athletics | 66.97% | 0.3393 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 51.67% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Tampa Bay Rays | 69.11% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 56.59% |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 53.07% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | 55.21% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 63.79% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 72.30% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals | 58.56% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.87% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.21% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 57.74% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 64.24% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51.32% |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | Chicago Cubs | 58.85% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Athletics | 66.97% |
Mid day yesterday. White Sox choked hard. Braves got their 9 runs in the 9th inning bs again.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
Picks won: 3/7
Net Units: +0.85u
ROI: 12.14%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 15/28
Sportsbook favorites won: 15/28
Picks won: 7/14
Net Units: +3.05u
ROI: 21.79%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 55.04% | 0.1007 | +100 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 64.07% | 0.1532 | -125 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 67.31% | 0.3799 | +105 |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | Washington Nationals | 43.38% | 0.1279 | +160 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Minnesota Twins | 44.49% | 0.1123 | +150 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 55.45% | 0.0813 | -105 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 53.17% | 0.1165 | +110 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 46.20% | 0.0857 | +135 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 50.44% | 0.0844 | +115 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Angels | 55.61% | 0.0844 | -105 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros | Colorado Rockies | 33.74% | 0.2992 | +285 |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | San Diego Padres | 50.00% | -0.0450 | -110 |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | Chicago Cubs | 63.99% | 0.0686 | -150 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Athletics | 57.63% | 0.2680 | +120 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds | 47.32% | 0.2541 | +165 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 55.04% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 64.07% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 67.31% |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 56.62% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 55.51% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 55.45% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 53.17% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 53.80% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 50.44% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Angels | 55.61% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 66.26% |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 50.00% |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | Chicago Cubs | 63.99% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Athletics | 57.63% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 52.68% |
Pretty good start to the week. Athletics clutched hard. Or it may be more accurate to say the pitching manager for the Tigers choked that game.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/13
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/13
Picks won: 4/7
Net Units: +2.20u
ROI: 31.43%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/13
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/13
Picks won: 4/7
Net Units: +2.20u
ROI: 31.43%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | 53.17% | -0.0429 | -125 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.54% | 0.2497 | +125 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 65.20% | 0.3041 | +100 |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | Washington Nationals | 41.80% | 0.2957 | +210 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Minnesota Twins | 52.00% | 0.1439 | +120 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 52.64% | 0.0791 | +105 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals | 59.54% | -0.0056 | -150 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 37.59% | -0.0225 | +160 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 57.70% | -0.0133 | -140 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Angels | 41.80% | 0.0449 | +150 |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | San Diego Padres | 51.53% | 0.0306 | +100 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Athletics | 45.77% | 0.3274 | +190 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds | 55.15% | 0.2408 | +125 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | 53.17% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.54% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 65.20% |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 58.20% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Minnesota Twins | 52.00% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 52.64% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals | 59.54% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 62.41% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 57.70% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 58.20% |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | San Diego Padres | 51.53% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Detroit Tigers | 54.23% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds | 55.15% |
Mid day today. First week of new model was really good though.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 10/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
Picks won: 3/6
Net Units: +0.05u
ROI: 0.83%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 38/57
Sportsbook favorites won: 33/57
Picks won: 20/27
Net Units: +12.70u
ROI: 47.04%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Colorado Rockies | 39.28% | 0.5713 | +300 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 56.14% | -0.0232 | -135 |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 68.77% | 0.1347 | -155 |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals | 32.21% | 0.1292 | +240 |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 72.05% | 0.2177 | -145 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | 49.36% | 0.1105 | +125 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 52.31% | 0.1246 | +115 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.12% | 0.0474 | +110 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | San Francisco Giants | 47.21% | 0.0622 | +125 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | Cleveland Guardians | 48.51% | -0.0056 | +105 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Angels | Chicago Cubs | 58.88% | -0.0462 | -160 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Cincinnati Reds | 50.00% | 0.0000 | +100 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers | 50.00% | -0.0450 | -110 |
| Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | Athletics | 47.43% | 0.1620 | +145 |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 45.73% | 0.1203 | +145 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.72% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 56.14% |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 68.77% |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 66.79% |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 72.05% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 50.64% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 52.31% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.12% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.79% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 51.49% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Angels | Chicago Cubs | 58.88% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.00% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 50.00% |
| Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 52.57% |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 54.27% |
Great day. Got pretty lucky with the Athletics and Blue Jays clutches tbh.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 9/14
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/14
Picks won: 7/9
Net Units: +4.46u
ROI: 49.56%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 28/42
Sportsbook favorites won: 24/42
Picks won: 17/21
Net Units: +12.65u
ROI: 60.24%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 68.12% | 0.2738 | -115 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Miami Marlins | Toronto Blue Jays | 74.92% | 0.3036 | -135 |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals | 37.04% | 0.0742 | +190 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | 54.10% | 0.1090 | +105 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 69.55% | 0.0711 | -185 |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 54.18% | -0.0248 | -125 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | Cleveland Guardians | 60.79% | 0.2462 | +105 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 58.43% | 0.1160 | -110 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | San Francisco Giants | 49.21% | 0.0827 | +120 |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 64.83% | 0.1670 | -125 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 59.04% | 0.1807 | +100 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.15% | -0.0229 | -135 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Angels | Chicago Cubs | 67.46% | 0.1400 | -145 |
| Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | Athletics | 56.42% | 0.3823 | +145 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 68.12% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Miami Marlins | Toronto Blue Jays | 74.92% |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 62.96% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | 54.10% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 69.55% |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 54.18% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | Cleveland Guardians | 60.79% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 58.43% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 50.79% |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 64.83% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 59.04% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.15% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Angels | Chicago Cubs | 67.46% |
| Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | Athletics | 56.42% |
Bayesball Picks 