Model-Based EV Picks
Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games
Solid day today. Honestly didn’t expect Nationals to win, but somehow, they pulled it off.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15
Picks won: 2/4
Net Units: +1.30u
ROI: 32.50%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 39/78
Sportsbook favorites won: 35/78
Picks won: 14/25
Net Units: +6.77u
ROI: 27.08%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | Ev | Odds |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays | 46.77% | 0.0055 | +115 |
| Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs | Washington Nationals | 37.80% | 0.2096 | +220 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 44.81% | 0.0082 | +125 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Chicago White Sox | 42.89% | 0.4584 | +240 |
| New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds | New York Mets | 65.92% | 0.1668 | -130 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 48.25% | 0.0374 | +115 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 46.29% | 0.0415 | +125 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | Cleveland Guardians | 46.97% | 0.0099 | +115 |
| San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 47.06% | -0.0117 | +110 |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 54.99% | 0.0174 | -115 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 52.39% | 0.0007 | -110 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Atlanta Braves | Seattle Mariners | 70.63% | 0.4833 | +110 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Boston Red Sox | 56.58% | 0.0581 | -115 |
| San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies | San Diego Padres | 67.00% | 0.0050 | -200 |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Athletics | 52.52% | 0.0504 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 53.23% |
| Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 62.20% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Philadelphia Phillies | 55.19% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 57.11% |
| New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds | New York Mets | 65.92% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers | 51.75% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles | Los Angeles Dodgers | 53.71% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 53.03% |
| San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals | San Francisco Giants | 52.94% |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 54.99% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 52.39% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Atlanta Braves | Seattle Mariners | 70.63% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Boston Red Sox | 56.58% |
| San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies | San Diego Padres | 67.00% |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Athletics | 52.52% |
Pretty bad day today.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15
Picks won: 1/4
Net Units: -1.45u
ROI: -36.25%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 31/63
Sportsbook favorites won: 29/63
Picks won: 12/21
Net Units: +5.47u
ROI: 26.05%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs | Washington Nationals | 41.24% | 0.1548 | +180 |
| New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 51.53% | 0.0047 | -105 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Chicago White Sox | 49.00% | 0.2496 | +155 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.95% | 0.1761 | +120 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 43.15% | 0.0356 | +140 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 57.33% | 0.0148 | -130 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 46.32% | 0.3896 | +200 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 55.87% | -0.0446 | -140 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | Cleveland Guardians | 45.88% | 0.0093 | +120 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 59.22% | 0.0482 | -130 |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers* | Texas Rangers | 51.62% | 0.1098 | +115 |
| San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.05% | -0.0109 | -120 |
| San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies* | Colorado Rockies | 35.34% | -0.0104 | +180 |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 67.28% | 0.1235 | -150 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Boston Red Sox | 61.30% | 0.0849 | -130 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 58.76% |
| New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 51.53% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 51.00% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.95% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles | Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.85% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 57.33% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Philadelphia Phillies | 53.68% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 55.87% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 54.12% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 59.22% |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers* | Texas Rangers | 51.62% |
| San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.05% |
| San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies* | San Diego Padres | 64.66% |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 67.28% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Boston Red Sox | 61.30% |
*Missing starting pitcher information for one or both teams
Decent day today. Went pretty much how I thought it would tbh.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 3/6
Sportsbook favorites won: 3/6
Picks won: 1/2
Net Units: +0.20u
ROI: 10.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 26/48
Sportsbook favorites won: 23/48
Picks won: 11/17
Net Units: +6.92u
ROI: 40.71%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Philadelphia Phillies | 49.00% | 0.0291 | +110 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 47.11% | -0.0342 | +105 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | Cleveland Guardians | 41.53% | -0.0448 | +130 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 61.98% | -0.0021 | -165 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 54.77% | 0.2323 | +125 |
| New York Yankees vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 53.77% | 0.1830 | +120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 51.00% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Los Angeles Dodgers | 52.89% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.47% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 61.98% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 54.77% |
| New York Yankees vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 53.77% |
Really good day today. Astros and White Sox clutched, though the Astros clutch was in part due to umpire shenanigans.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 5/15
Picks won: 3/4
Net Units: +2.95u
ROI: 73.75%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 23/42
Sportsbook favorites won: 20/42
Picks won: 10/15
Net Units: +6.72u
ROI: 44.80%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | Miami Marlins | 57.52% | -0.0394 | -150 |
| New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers | New York Mets | 52.92% | -0.0316 | -120 |
| Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 62.76% | 0.0732 | -140 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres | Baltimore Orioles | 44.84% | 0.0763 | +140 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.90% | 0.2975 | +150 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Cincinnati Reds | Toronto Blue Jays | 62.79% | -0.0017 | -170 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 58.88% | -0.0285 | -155 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 48.59% | 0.0689 | +120 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 68.09% | 0.0689 | -175 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 67.71% | 0.0765 | -170 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 61.10% | 0.4663 | +140 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 58.21% | 0.0478 | -125 |
| Athletics vs St. Louis Cardinals | Athletics | 65.28% | 0.2730 | -105 |
| New York Yankees vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 68.69% | 0.4082 | +105 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 35.23% | 0.0216 | +190 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | Miami Marlins | 57.52% |
| New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers | New York Mets | 52.92% |
| Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 62.76% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 55.16% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.90% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Cincinnati Reds | Toronto Blue Jays | 62.79% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 58.88% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Seattle Mariners | 51.41% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 68.09% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 67.71% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 61.10% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 58.21% |
| Athletics vs St. Louis Cardinals | Athletics | 65.28% |
| New York Yankees vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 68.69% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 64.77% |
Solid day today. Making small steps to cover last Friday’s burn.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 9/14
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/14
Picks won: 3/5
Net Units: +0.90u
ROI: 18.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 16/27
Sportsbook favorites won: 15/27
Picks won: 7/11
Net Units: +3.77u
ROI: 34.27%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers- | New York Mets | 65.59% | 0.1610 | -130 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 43.54% | 0.1104 | +155 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 49.19% | 0.0330 | +110 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 31.08% | 0.0103 | +225 |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals- | Washington Nationals | 54.93% | -0.0113 | -125 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 51.82% | 0.0365 | +100 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals | Los Angeles Angels | 42.12% | -0.0103 | +135 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 64.54% | -0.0255 | -195 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 56.10% | 0.2341 | +120 |
| Athletics vs St. Louis Cardinals | Athletics | 65.23% | 0.1938 | -120 |
| New York Yankees vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 54.31% | 0.1133 | +105 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies- | San Francisco Giants | 38.72% | 0.1230 | +190 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres | Baltimore Orioles | 41.71% | 0.0637 | +155 |
| Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 58.68% | 0.0973 | -115 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers | New York Mets | 65.59% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.46% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Cincinnati Reds | Toronto Blue Jays | 50.81% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 68.92% |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 54.93% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 51.82% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 57.88% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 64.54% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 56.10% |
| Athletics vs St. Louis Cardinals | Athletics | 65.23% |
| New York Yankees vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 54.31% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 61.28% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 58.29% |
| Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 58.68% |
Bayesball Picks 