Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

Recent posts

Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games

Category: Uncategorized

  • 9/16/25 Recap

    Pretty mid day today. Rockies almost came back at the end, which I wanted so bad. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/16Sportsbook favorites won: 8/16Picks won: 2/4Net Units: +0.40uROI: 10.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 14/25Sportsbook favorites won: 15/25Picks won: 4/8Net Units: -0.15uROI: -1.88%

  • 9/16/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals* Washington Nationals 45.79% 0.0074 +120 Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Cleveland…

  • 9/15/25 Recap

    Slightly bad day today. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/9Sportsbook favorites won: 7/9Picks won: 2/4Net Units: -0.55uROI: -13.75% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 5/9Sportsbook favorites won: 7/9Picks won: 2/4Net Units: -0.55uROI: -13.75%

  • 9/15/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 59.19% 0.2134 +105 Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Washington…

  • 9/14/25 Recap

    Solid day to end the horrible week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 11/15Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +0.98uROI: 14.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 51/80Sportsbook favorites won: 56/65Picks won: 17/40Net Units: -5.29uROI: -13.23%

  • 9/14/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals Pittsburgh Pirates 59.84% 0.1429 -110 Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies…

  • 9/13/25 Recap

    Once again, another day with very high confidence picks that fell flat. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/15Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15Picks won: 4/9Net Units: -0.68uROI: -7.56% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 40/65Sportsbook favorites won: 47/65Picks won: 13/33Net Units: -6.27uROI: -19.00%

  • 9/13/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs Tampa Bay Rays 58.12% 0.1623 +100 Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto…

  • 9/12/25 Recap

    My losing streak continues. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 6/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 2/5Net Units: -1.32uROI: -26.40% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 30/65Sportsbook favorites won: 37/65Picks won: 9/24Net Units: -5.59uROI: -23.29%

  • 9/12/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs Tampa Bay Rays 42.81% 0.0728 +150 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington…