Bayesball Picks
Model-Based EV Picks
Recent posts
Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games
Category: Uncategorized
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Good day today for my picks but not really great for the model overall. Coming up on the last week of the regular season sadly. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/15Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15Picks won: 3/6Net Units: +1.12uROI: 18.67% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 51/96Sportsbook favorites won: 48/96Picks won: 16/31Net Units: +3.94uROI: 12.71%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 51.70% -0.0332 -115 New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Baltimore…
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Decent day today. Very small gain, but that could have gone a lot worse. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/16Sportsbook favorites won: 6/16Picks won: 2/4Net Units: +0.17uROI: 4.25% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 46/81Sportsbook favorites won: 42/81Picks won: 13/25Net Units: +2.82uROI: 11.28%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Atlanta Braves vs Detroit Tigers Atlanta Braves 48.95% 0.0036 +105 Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Cleveland…
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Solid day today. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/15Sportsbook favorites won: 3/15Picks won: 3/5Net Units: +1.40uROI: 28.20% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 38/65Sportsbook favorites won: 36/65Picks won: 11/21Net Units: +2.65uROI: 12.62%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Chicago Cubs 55.43% -0.0356 -135 Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates* Pittsburgh Pirates…
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Decent day today. Padres really let themselves go though. Also, funnily enough, it’s like my fourth day in a row going 2/4 on picks. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/10Sportsbook favorites won: 7/10Picks won: 2/4Net Units: +1.00uROI: 25.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 31/50Sportsbook favorites won: 33/50Picks won: 8/16Net Units: +1.25uROI: 7.81%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Cleveland Guardians 47.05% 0.2469 +165 San Diego Padres vs New York…
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Should’ve been a better day consider my model overall did well. Funnily enough, net units are the same as yesterday. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/15Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15Picks won: 2/4Net Units: +0.40uROI: 10.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 24/40Sportsbook favorites won: 26/40Picks won: 6/12Net Units: +0.25uROI: 2.08%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 54.52% 0.3084 +140 Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals…
Bayesball Picks 