Bayesball Picks
Model-Based EV Picks
Recent posts
Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games
Category: Uncategorized
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Pretty mid day. Really a big blow that the Orioles lost though, given their predicted probability to win. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 2/5Net Units: -0.20uROI: -4.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 32/60Sportsbook favorites won: 30/60Picks won: 11/22Net Units: +3.53uROI: 16.05%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs* Chicago Cubs 62.30% -0.0281 -180 Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies…
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Not a great day today. White Sox almost had it, but they choked twice in this series that led to their loss. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/12Sportsbook favorites won: 8/12Picks won: 1/3Net Units: -1.13uROI: -37.67% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 24/45Sportsbook favorites won: 22/45Picks won: 9/17Net Units: +3.73uROI: 21.94%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Pittsburgh Pirates 48.46% 0.1631 +140 Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles…
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Pretty solid day today. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 3/5Net Units: +1.11uROI: 22.20% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 16/33Sportsbook favorites won: 14/33Picks won: 8/14Net Units: +4.86uROI: 34.71%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Washington Nationals 59.37% 0.5437 +160 Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres…
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Really good day. Marlins and Cardinals came clutch. White Sox trolled pretty hard though. Ended up losing the game because of a wild pitch home base steal in the 9th inning. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/15Sportsbook favorites won: 4/15Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +3.50uROI: 50.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 7/18Sportsbook favorites won: 6/18Picks won:…
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Rays 53.25% -0.0041 -115 Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland…
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Decent start to the last week of the regular season. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 2/3Sportsbook favorites won: 2/3Picks won: 1/2Net Units: +0.25uROI: 12.50% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 2/3Sportsbook favorites won: 2/3Picks won: 1/2Net Units: +0.25uROI: 12.50%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Washington Nationals 41.29% 0.3212 +220 Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres…
Bayesball Picks 