Bayesball Picks
Model-Based EV Picks
Recent posts
Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games
Category: Uncategorized
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 53.28% -0.0409 -125 San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs…
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Yea the model isn’t looking good for the post-season tbh. Hopefully just getting unlucky right now; it’d be good if the model generalized to post season. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 3/4Sportsbook favorites won: 3/4Picks won: 0/2Net Units: -2uROI: -100.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 4/8Sportsbook favorites won: 6/8Picks won: 1/5Net Units: -3.17uROI: -63.40%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 60.39% 0.0205 -145 San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs…
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Not the best day for the model or picks. I honestly doubt that the model trained off of the regular season games will properly generalize for the post-season games, but we’ll see. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/4Sportsbook favorites won: 3/4Picks won: 1/3Net Units: -1.17uROI: -39.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 1/4Sportsbook favorites won: 3/4Picks…
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 51.78% 0.2427 +140 San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs…
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I may post picks for the matches in the post-season. I will also be considering futures. As of currently, my top 3 to win the world series according to my model are the Dodgers, Cubs, and Mariners.
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Horrible day today to end the regular season. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/15Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15Picks won: 1/5Net Units: -2.90uROI: -58.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 48/90Sportsbook favorites won: 50/90Picks won: 15/34Net Units: -0.21uROI: -0.62%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox* Boston Red Sox 62.44% N/A N/A Kansas City Royals vs…
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Another down day sadly. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/15Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15Picks won: 3/7Net Units: -0.84uROI: -12.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 41/75Sportsbook favorites won: 39/75Picks won: 14/29Net Units: +2.69uROI: 9.28%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Baltimore Orioles 44.00% 0.3419 +205 St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago…
Bayesball Picks 