Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

Recent posts

Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games

Category: Uncategorized

  • 10/10/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 52.58% 0.1042 +110 My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win…

  • 10/9/25 Recap

    Another slight up day for the model. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/2Sportsbook favorites won: 1/2Picks won: 1/2Net Units: +0.05uROI: 2.50% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 11/19Sportsbook favorites won: 13/19Picks won: 6/12Net Units: -0.70uROI: -5.83%

  • 10/9/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 51.75% 0.1126 +115 Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers…

  • 10/7/25 Recap

    Another slight up day for the model. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 2/2Sportsbook favorites won: 2/2Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +0.71uROI: 71.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 10/17Sportsbook favorites won: 12/17Picks won: 5/10Net Units: -0.75uROI: -7.50%

  • 10/7/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Seattle Mariners 61.25% 0.0457 -140 Toronto Blue Jays vs New York…

  • 10/6/25 Recap

    Model doing quite a bit better now. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 2/2Sportsbook favorites won: 2/2Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +0.74uROI: 74.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15Picks won: 4/9Net Units: -1.46uROI: -16.22%

  • 10/6/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Los Angeles Dodgers 60.23% 0.0480 -135 Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee…

  • 10/5/25 Recap

    I still think my model might not properly generalize, but that’s the first up day. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/2Sportsbook favorites won: 0/2Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +1.10uROI: 110% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 6/13Sportsbook favorites won: 8/13Picks won: 3/8Net Units: -2.20uROI: -27.50%

  • 10/5/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 42.04% -0.0332 +130 Detroit Tigers vs…

  • 10/2/25 Recap

    Numbers aside, intuitively, it would make sense that my model wouldn’t work as well for post-season since starting pitcher is valued a lot more in the post-season than in the regular season. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/3Sportsbook favorites won: 2/3Picks won: 1/2Net Units: -0.13uROI: -6.50% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 5/11Sportsbook favorites won: 8/11Picks…