Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

Recent posts

Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games

Category: Uncategorized

  • 10/17/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Toronto Blue Jays 52.03% -0.0479 -120 Milwaukee Brewers vs Los…

  • 10/15/25 Recap

    Well, Mariners did not end up sweeping. Blue Jays laid belt to ass. My model had that though. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/1Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +1.00uROI: 100.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 17/25Sportsbook favorites won: 15/25Picks won: 11/17Net Units: +4.78uROI: 28.12%

  • 10/15/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Toronto Blue Jays 65.01% 0.3003 +100 My Model’s Predicted Winner…

  • 10/14/25 Recap

    I think both Dodgers and Mariners might end up sweeping. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/1Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +0.83uROI: 83.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 16/24Sportsbook favorites won: 15/24Picks won: 10/16Net Units: +3.78uROI: 23.63%

  • 10/14/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Los Angeles Dodgers 57.60% 0.0540 -120 My Model’s Predicted Winner…

  • 10/13/25 Recap

    My model’s been really good after that set of wild card matches. Maybe it’s luck though. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 2/2Sportsbook favorites won: 1/2Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +1.15uROI: 115.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 15/23Sportsbook favorites won: 14/23Picks won: 9/15Net Units: +2.95uROI: 19.67%

  • 10/13/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Seattle Mariners 54.69% 0.1759 +115 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee…

  • 10/12/25 Recap

    Seems like the models been good in these past few games. Although, I did miss a few days. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/1Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +1.40uROI: 140.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 13/21Sportsbook favorites won: 13/21Picks won: 8/14Net Units: 1.80uROI: 12.86%

  • 10/12/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Seattle Mariners 52.29% 0.2549 +140 My Model’s Predicted Winner +…

  • 10/10/25 Recap

    Another slight up day for the model. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/1Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +1.10uROI: 110.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 12/20Sportsbook favorites won: 13/20Picks won: 7/13Net Units: 0.40uROI: 3.07%