Bayesball Picks
Model-Based EV Picks
Recent posts
Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games
Category: Uncategorized
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Horrible day today, like last Saturday. I’m not superstitious or anything, but I’m starting to think Saturdays may be cursed for my model or something. It is, however, also notable that the Braves were still missing starting pitcher information an hour before the game. I assume that some of the other probable starting pitchers were…
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My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Predicted Team Probability EV Odds Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees Chicago Cubs 45.15% 0.0610 +135 Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 58.90% 0.0602 -125 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins Pittsburgh Pirates 51.06% 0.0978 +115…
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I went 3/6 on picks today, but since all the picks today had good odds, I ended up with a solid profit today. It was kind of funny to see how few people there were at the earlier White Sox game today. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/16Sportsbook favorites won: 9/16Picks won: 3/6Net Units: +1.70uROI:…
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My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Predicted Team Probability EV Odds Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 71.86% 0.4731 +105 Miami Marlins vs Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 59.90% 0.0123 -145 Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees Chicago Cubs 44.06%…
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Although today was a positive day. it felt pretty awful since both Rays and Mariners should have won, especially the Mariners. Honestly, their chokejob was impressive. White Sox match got postponed, so we’ll see how it goes tomorrow. The prediction may change though. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 6/10Sportsbook favorites won: 4/10Picks won: 3/5Net Units:…
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My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Predicted Team Probability EV Odds New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles New York Mets 58.26% -0.0271 -150 Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins Chicago Cubs 56.90% -0.0270 -140 New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles New York Mets…
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Pretty rough day today. I made a pretty big mistake missing the first few matches, since Brewers had pretty good odds and probability last night. I might switch to posting the matchups early on, then updating the ones that start later the day a few hours before they begin. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 4/10Sportsbook…
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Sorry for the late post. Missed the first four games, so those aren’t included. My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Predicted Team Probability EV Odds Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Seattle Mariners 45.56% 0.0478 +130 Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox…
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Mets and Giants had me sweating today. Pretty good day overall. Mariners was a true disasterclass. They lost all their steam after the game got delayed. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/15Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15Picks won: 4/6Net Units: +1.01uROI: 16.83% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 17/25Sportsbook favorites won: 14/25Picks won: 8/12Net Units: +3.42uROI: 28.5%
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My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Predicted Team Probability EV Odds New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles New York Mets 69.91% 0.2164 -135 Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 59.00% 0.0444 -130 Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Seattle Mariners…
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