Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

Recent posts

Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games

Category: Uncategorized

  • 10/25/25 Recap

    Unfortunate home loss for the Jays. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/1Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1Picks won: 0/1Net Units: -1.00uROI: -100.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 20/31Sportsbook favorites won: 19/31Picks won: 12/21Net Units: +3.13uROI: 14.90%

  • 10/25/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 50.00% 0.1000 +120 My Model’s Predicted…

  • 10/24/25 Recap

    Very big Blue Jays win. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/1Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +1.35uROI: 135.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 19/30Sportsbook favorites won: 18/30Picks won: 12/20Net Units: +4.13uROI: 20.65%

  • 10/24/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 51.81% 0.2176 +135 My Model’s Predicted…

  • 10/18/25 Recap

    Very unfortunate Mariners loss. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 0/1Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1Picks won: 0/1Net Units: -1.00uROI: -100.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 18/29Sportsbook favorites won: 18/29Picks won: 11/19Net Units: +2.78uROI: 14.63%

  • 10/18/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Seattle Mariners 50.11% 0.0272 +105 My Model’s Predicted Winner +…

  • 10/17/25 Recap

    Mariners go to a game 7. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 0/1Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1Picks won: 0/1Net Units: -1.00uROI: -100.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 18/28Sportsbook favorites won: 17/28Picks won: 11/18Net Units: +3.78uROI: 21.00%

  • 10/17/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Seattle Mariners 51.01% 0.0201 +100 My Model’s Predicted Winner +…

  • 10/16/25 Recap

    And Dodgers get the sweep. My model had Jays, but I wanted Mariners, so I’m glad my model missed that. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/2Sportsbook favorites won: 1/2Picks won: 0/0Net Units: +0.00uROI: 0.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 18/27Sportsbook favorites won: 16/27Picks won: 11/17Net Units: +4.78uROI: 28.12%

  • 10/16/25 Recap

    Mariners might be a little screwed. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/2Sportsbook favorites won: 1/2Picks won: 0/1Net Units: -1.00uROI: -100.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 18/27Sportsbook favorites won: 16/27Picks won: 11/18Net Units: +3.78uROI: 21.00%