Bayesball Picks
Model-Based EV Picks
Recent posts
Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games
Category: Uncategorized
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My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 64.17% 0.0716 -150 Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 60.46% 0.0882 -125 San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 66.26% 0.1198…
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Not a great day today, but not as horrible as the first two Saturdays. Was bound for a loss after having such wins lately. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15Picks won: 2/5Net Units: -0.77uROI: -15.40% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 25/45Sportsbook favorites won: 23/45Picks won: 11/19Net Units: +4.74uROI: 24.95%
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My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 54.31% 0.0048 -115 Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 60.74% 0.0934 -125 San Diego Padres vs Washington…
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Pretty solid day today. Had a ton of decent probability picks today and they delivered. Could’ve had an extra win though if the Braves didn’t absolutely choke that 5-0 lead. Mariners did clutch up though which balances that out a little. Turns out Saturdays may not be as cursed as I had thought. Notably though,…
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My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 60.33% 0.2368 +105 Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Cincinnati Reds 40.87% 0.0218 +150 Kansas City Royals vs Miami Marlins…
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Alright day today. Solid odds on my bets, so ended up with a good return even though I went 3/6 on picks. Glad that baseball and betting is back. Technically the start of this week of betting given the long All Stars delay. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 3/6Net Units:…
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My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Boston Red Sox vs Chicago Cubs Boston Red Sox 56.44% 0.2135 +115 Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates Chicago White Sox 44.99% 0.0797 +140 San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals…
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This week is MLB All-Star Week, so there are no regular games until Friday. Unfortunately, that means no picks or gambling until Friday.
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Model performed pretty well today and closed this week out with a bang. Unfortunately, the White Sox choked, and Steven Kwan clutched up to finish them off in the 10th. Otherwise, all the matches went pretty much as expected. Athletics were surprisingly dominant today. Given the Jay’s recent dominance, I thought it might go against…
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My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Predicted Team Probability EV Odds Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 57.15% 0.1431 +100 Miami Marlins vs Baltimore Orioles Miami Marlins 49.33% -0.0133 +100 Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees Chicago Cubs…
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