Bayesball Picks
Model-Based EV Picks
Recent posts
Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games
Category: Uncategorized
-
My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees New York Yankees 54.35% 0.1414 +110 Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 65.22% 0.2066 -115 Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers…
-
Pretty bad day for my model and the sportsbook, but my picks still hit. The Rockies and Phillies were excellent +EV picks that went against my model but were close to 50%. It seems my model is decently calibrated now. Unfortunately, Guardians vs Royals has been postponed to tomorrow. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/14Sportsbook…
-
My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Miami Marlins 35.73% -0.0354 +170 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Arizona Diamondbacks 56.62% 0.0815 -110 Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore Orioles Colorado Rockies 46.52% 0.3024 +180…
-
Very strong day today. Only had two picks today, but both of them hit. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 3/4Sportsbook favorites won: 1/4Picks won: 2/2Net Units: +2.33uROI: 116.50% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 28/49Sportsbook favorites won: 23/49Picks won: 12/21Net Units: +3.77uROI: 17.95%
-
Sorry that I missed the Orioles vs Guardians match today. Not a lot of matches today overall though. My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers Toronto Blue Jays 52.12% 0.1205 +115…
-
Slightly positive day today. Stressful as hell though. The first 3 bets missed, and Red Sox and White Sox games were down to the wire. I almost thought I would miss all my bets today. Anyways, horrible day for both my favorites and the sportsbook’s favorites. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/15Sportsbook favorites won: 5/15Picks…
-
My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 53.27% 0.1188 +110 San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 48.17% 0.0839 +125 San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 60.62%…
-
Slightly down day today. Unfortunately, neither of my riskier bets managed to hit, and somehow the Cardinals lost against the Rockies. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/15Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15Picks won: 4/8Net Units: -0.66uROI: -8.25% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 20/30Sportsbook favorites won: 17/30Picks won: 7/13Net Units: +0.78uROI: 6.00%
-
My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 71.52% 0.1372 -170 Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 47.32% -0.0063 +110 San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 66.72% 0.2010…
-
Fairly good day today. Pretty good start to the week, especially considering the lack of high-quality picks I had today. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 3/5Net Units: +1.44uROI: 28.80% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 10/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 3/5Net Units: +1.44uROI: 28.80%
Bayesball Picks 