Bayesball Picks
Model-Based EV Picks
Recent posts
Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games
Category: Uncategorized
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My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 53.34% -0.0132 -115 Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 69.45% 0.0696 -185 Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners…
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Really solid day today. Rays vs Yankees was cinema towards the end of the game. Unfortunately, said cinema is why the Rays lost. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/15Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15Picks won: 5/7Net Units: +3.33uROI: 47.57% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 22/46Sportsbook favorites won: 22/46Picks won: 17/27Net Units: +10.7uROI: 39.63%
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My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Toronto Blue Jays 64.65% 0.3254 +105 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Detroit Tigers Arizona Diamondbacks 50.78% 0.0663 +110 Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Boston Red…
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Very mediocre day today. Had tons of picks, a lot of which were high probability, but only half of them hit. Especially disappointed by the Blue Jays loss in the second match of the doubleheaders since that is my first 80% probability pick in a very long time, and it was a loss. Today’s Stats:…
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My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Toronto Blue Jays 52.12% 0.0945 +110 Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Toronto Blue Jays 80.41% 0.3990 -135 Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Guardians Colorado…
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Incredible day today. Somehow my high probability picks missed, but I’m not complaining considering all of my lower probability picks with juicy odds hit. Definitely my best day of picks since starting this project. What a way to start the week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/15Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15Picks won: 6/8Net Units: +7.52uROI: 94.00%…
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My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Predicted Team Probability EV Odds Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 53.14% 0.0361 -105 Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Guardians Colorado Rockies 43.47% 0.3910 +220 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Detroit Tigers Arizona Diamondbacks 68.12% 0.4645 +115…
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Very mediocre day today. Had a ton of picks, but even the higher probability ones like the Cardinals failed to hit. I don’t even want to talk about the Giants game; they had so many opportunities to win but choked all of them. And well, the Mets have swept them now. Today’s Stats: Model favorites…
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My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore Orioles Colorado Rockies 49.48% 0.3359 +170 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 55.84% 0.0889 -105 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Arizona Diamondbacks…
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Horrendous day today. I think this is my worst day to date. Last Saturday being a good day deceived me into thinking Saturdays were not cursed, but I’m back to having horrible Saturdays. On a similar note, I also seem to be cursed whenever there is a double-header. Honestly, the situation for a double header…
Bayesball Picks 