Bayesball Picks
Model-Based EV Picks
Recent posts
Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games
Category: Uncategorized
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My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 59.77% 0.3150 +120 Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 63.84% 0.0342 -160 Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 57.76% 0.1263…
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Pretty solid day today. Great start to the week, and a great end to my losing streak. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/13Sportsbook favorites won: 6/13Picks won: 4/6Net Units: +2.65uROI: 44.17% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 7/13Sportsbook favorites won: 6/13Picks won: 4/6Net Units: +2.65uROI: 44.17%
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My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 63.84% 0.3406 +110 Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 72.70% 0.0759 -210 Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 63.38% 0.1028…
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Horrible day today. Model changed the output for the Reds game, and it was suspended, so I will not be including that match given how wacky it was. White Sox choked a 5-0 lead. Athletics lost with 75% projected probability. Nationals got swept horribly and my model had them all 3 games. This week was…
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My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 54.81% 0.1235 +105 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 44.94% 0.2583 +180 Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds*…
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Mediocre day today. Reds match got delayed to tomorrow, but they are up 1-0 in the 1st, so it’s a pretty good position. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/14Sportsbook favorites won: 7/14Picks won: 3/6Net Units: -0.25uROI: -4.17% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 37/78Sportsbook favorites won: 38/78Picks won: 24/42Net Units: +8.05uROI: 19.17%
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My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 50.87% 0.0073 +100 Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs Baltimore Orioles 35.34% -0.0105 +180 Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays…
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Quite a bad start to the new month. Not much else to say, it was just a pretty bad day. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 3/7Net Units: -1.96uROI: -28.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 30/64Sportsbook favorites won: 31/64Picks won: 21/36Net Units: +8.30uROI: 23.06%
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My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probabilities EV Odds Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 68.79% 0.1763 -140 Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs Baltimore Orioles 47.70% 0.0971 +130 Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 59.17% -0.0118 -150…
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Pretty bad day today, though there weren’t that many picks to matter. Reds loss was pretty heartbreaking given the massive 8 run comeback they had. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/3Sportsbook favorites won: 1/3Picks won: 1/2Net Units: -0.44uROI: -22.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 23/49Sportsbook favorites won: 23/49Picks won: 18/29Net Units: +10.26uROI: 35.38%
Bayesball Picks 