Bayesball Picks
Model-Based EV Picks
Recent posts
Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games
Category: Uncategorized
-
My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Kansas City Royals 60.47% 0.0702 -130 Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles Athletics 61.48% 0.2604 +105 Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds 53.58% 0.0019 -115…
-
Horrible day today. I just cannot catch a break this week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/16Sportsbook favorites won: 8/16Picks won: 2/6Net Units: -2.03uROI: -33.83% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 40/78Sportsbook favorites won: 41/78Picks won: 17/40Net Units: -6.80uROI: -17.00%
-
My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Miami Marlins 55.68% 0.0413 -115 Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Houston Astros 59.31% 0.0497 -130 Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants…
-
Model did pretty well today. Unfortunately, my picks did not. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/15Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15Picks won: 3/7Net Units: -0.88uROI: -12.57% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 31/62Sportsbook favorites won: 33/62Picks won: 15/34Net Units: -4.77uROI: -14.03%
-
My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 65.49% 0.2247 +105 Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 57.23% 0.0301 -125 Houston Astros vs New York Yankees New York Yankees 57.03% 0.1692…
-
Yet another bad day. This week has been awful. White Sox choked horrendously. If they hadn’t, I’d be up a decent bit today. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 2/4Sportsbook favorites won: 2/4Picks won: 1/3Net Units: -1.41uROI: -47.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 21/47Sportsbook favorites won: 23/47Picks won: 12/27Net Units: -3.89uROI: -14.41%
-
My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Athletics vs Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 62.62% 0.3463 +115 Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners Chicago White Sox 38.21% 0.3184 +245 Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 64.59% 0.0269…
-
Pretty bad day today. Luckily, I did figure out a small issue with my model and changed it so it should be better and more consistent going forwards. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 6/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15Picks won: 4/9Net Units: -0.78uROI: -8.67% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 19/43Sportsbook favorites won: 21/43Picks won: 11/24Net Units: -2.48uROI:…
-
My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 53.32% 0.2530 +135 Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies Baltimore Orioles 39.73% -0.0465 +140 Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets Cleveland Guardians 45.30%…
-
Horrible day today. Might be the worst day since I’ve started this project. Was so happy yesterday to break my losing streak but this day was almost worse than the whole streak combined maybe. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 6/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 3/9Net Units: -4.35uROI: -48.33% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 13/28Sportsbook favorites…
Bayesball Picks 