Bayesball Picks
Model-Based EV Picks
Recent posts
Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games
Category: Uncategorized
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Pittsburgh Pirates 47.87% 0.3404 +180 Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati…
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Pretty poor day today for both me and the sportsbook. I had a lot of 50% swing matches today though, one of which was one of my two picks. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 2/7Sportsbook favorites won: 3/7Picks won: 1/2Net Units: +0.85uROI: 42.50% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 24/48Sportsbook favorites won: 22/48Picks won: 10/20Net Units:…
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 44.42% -0.0450 +115 Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays…
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Very good day today. New model is cooking. Obviously it’s a bit early to call it a good model, since I lack large numbers and could just be getting lucky rn. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/15Sportsbook favorites won: 5/15Picks won: 5/6Net Units: +4.27uROI: 71.17% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 22/41Sportsbook favorites won: 19/41Picks won:…
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My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals Washington Nationals 38.11% -0.0093 +160 Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 47.43% -0.0278 +105 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Pittsburgh Pirates…
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Pretty good first day for my new model. Hopefully it stays consistent. Sucks that Dodgers choked at the end there. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +1.50uROI: 21.43% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 13/26Sportsbook favorites won: 14/26Picks won: 4/12Net Units: -3.50uROI: -29.17%
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My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 42.91%% 0.0083 +135 Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 45.15% 0.0159 +125 Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 68.07% 0.1504 -145…
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Horrible day for my model, but I made a big mistake and forgot to update my dataset and team records. Really bad slip-up to make, since that affects quite a few of my features. Also, I’m almost done with testing and analysis for my new model, which I’ll use starting now. Today’s Stats: Model favorites…
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My Picks Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 61.36% 0.1045 -125 Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Minnesota Twins 51.48% 0.3385 +160 Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals Washington Nationals 67.74%…
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That wraps up the worst week I hope I will ever have in this project. Luckily, I did figure out that the SVM I had just swapped out was not very consistent and has been dropping in accuracy the past couple of weeks. I think it might have been overfitting but I’m not certain. Today’s…
Bayesball Picks 