Bayesball Picks
Model-Based EV Picks
Recent posts
Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games
Category: Uncategorized
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I’ll be off on a small break, so I won’t be posting for the next couple of days. I might still post my picks tomorrow, but I will not post the recap until I get back. Should be back by Saturday.
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Good day overall, but it could have been a lot better if the White Sox didn’t choke a 10-4 lead. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 13/16Sportsbook favorites won: 12/16Picks won: 5/7Net Units: +2.81uROI: 40.14% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 19/28Sportsbook favorites won: 17/28Picks won: 10/12Net Units: +8.19uROI: 68.25%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 58.18% 0.0123 -135 Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Houston…
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Great start to the week. Finally got all the analysis done, so I will be using this model until the end of the season probably. And this will be the official start to my second live-test session. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 6/12Sportsbook favorites won: 5/12Picks won: 5/5Net Units: +5.38uROI: 107.60% Weekly Stats: Model favorites…
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 52.68% -0.0517 -125 Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Detroit…
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Horrible day. Half of my losses were chokes in the 8th or 9th inning which really sucks. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15Picks won: 2/8Net Units: -4.51uROI: -56.38% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 43/93Sportsbook favorites won: 45/93Picks won: 17/44Net Units: -8.61uROI: -19.57%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies 69.09% 0.0640 -185 Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox…
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Another day full of choking. Diamondbacks and Reds had insane chokes. Can’t wait to wrap up this week though. The few starting days of the new model were pretty solid, and I’m still positive with the new model, but this Monday was awful. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15Picks won: 3/8Net Units:…
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 72.76% 0.0186 -250 Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays…
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Horrible day. So many of my picks absolutely choked today. Generational choke by the Reds, Rangers, and Giants. Although at this point, the Giants choke was very expected. I see loaded bases and I know they won’t score. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 6/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15Picks won: 2/8Net Units: -3.46uROI: -43.25% Weekly Stats: Model…