Bayesball Picks
Model-Based EV Picks
Recent posts
Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games
Category: Uncategorized
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Decent day today. But started the day with two losses which was a bit stressful. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 12/15Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +1.30uROI: 18.57% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 27/43Sportsbook favorites won: 25/43Picks won: 11/21Net Units: +4.35uROI: 20.71%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees Washington Nationals 48.33% 0.5467 +220 Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland…
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Mid day yesterday. White Sox choked hard. Braves got their 9 runs in the 9th inning bs again. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 3/7Net Units: +0.85uROI: 12.14% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 15/28Sportsbook favorites won: 15/28Picks won: 7/14Net Units: +3.05uROI: 21.79%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 55.04% 0.1007 +100 Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland…
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Pretty good start to the week. Athletics clutched hard. Or it may be more accurate to say the pitching manager for the Tigers choked that game. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/13Sportsbook favorites won: 7/13Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +2.20uROI: 31.43% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 7/13Sportsbook favorites won: 7/13Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +2.20uROI: 31.43%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox 53.17% -0.0429 -125 Tampa Bay Rays vs…
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Mid day today. First week of new model was really good though. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/15Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15Picks won: 3/6Net Units: +0.05uROI: 0.83% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 38/57Sportsbook favorites won: 33/57Picks won: 20/27Net Units: +12.70uROI: 47.04%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Colorado Rockies 39.28% 0.5713 +300 St. Louis Cardinals vs Tampa Bay…
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Great day. Got pretty lucky with the Athletics and Blue Jays clutches tbh. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/14Sportsbook favorites won: 7/14Picks won: 7/9Net Units: +4.46uROI: 49.56% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 28/42Sportsbook favorites won: 24/42Picks won: 17/21Net Units: +12.65uROI: 60.24%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 68.12% 0.2738 -115 Toronto Blue Jays…
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