Bayesball Picks
Model-Based EV Picks
Recent posts
Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games
Category: Uncategorized
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Pretty solid day to start the week and the month. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/13Sportsbook favorites won: 7/13Picks won: 4/6Net Units: +2.87uROI: 47.83% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 7/13Sportsbook favorites won: 7/13Picks won: 4/6Net Units: +2.87uROI: 47.83%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals* Miami Marlins 54.29% N/A N/A New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers…
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Another bad day to bring this week down to a horrible week. Particularly got screwed on Friday though. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 1/4Net Units: -1.35uROI: -33.75% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 50/96Sportsbook favorites won: 53/96Picks won: 15/39Net Units: -4.25uROI: -10.90%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 58.83% -0.0058 -145 San Diego Padres vs Minnesota…
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Alright day today. A lot more in line with the smaller more consistent gains my model previously had. Yesterday still stings. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 6/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7//15Picks won: 2/4Net Units: 0.30uROI: 7.50% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 42/81Sportsbook favorites won: 45/81Picks won: 14/35Net Units: -2.90uROI: -8.29%
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays Milwaukee Brewers 47.99% 0.0078 +110 Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington…
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Horrendous day. By my calculations, losing on all 6 picks was a ~1% probability event. It’s bound to happen, but man does it feel terrible. Looking at model analysis, it doesn’t seem like the model is doing horribly, just an unlucky day. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7//15Picks won: 0/6Net Units: -6.00uROI:…
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 59.10% 0.0283 -135 Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington…
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First bad day in a while. Rockies almost had that game tbh. White Sox played poorly the entire time except for the grand slam (which wouldn’t have even happened without a typical Volpe error). Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 4/8Sportsbook favorites won: 6/8Picks won: 1/4Net Units: -1.55uROI: -38.75% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 31/51Sportsbook favorites…
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My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 38.95% 0.0127 +160 Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros…
Bayesball Picks 