Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

Recent posts

Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games

Category: Uncategorized

  • 9/6/25 Recap

    Solid day today. Honestly didn’t expect Nationals to win, but somehow, they pulled it off. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15Picks won: 2/4Net Units: +1.30uROI: 32.50% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 39/78Sportsbook favorites won: 35/78Picks won: 14/25Net Units: +6.77uROI: 27.08%

  • 9/6/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability Ev Odds Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Toronto Blue Jays 46.77% 0.0055 +115 Washington Nationals vs…

  • 9/5/25 Recap

    Pretty bad day today. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/15Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15Picks won: 1/4Net Units: -1.45uROI: -36.25% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 31/63Sportsbook favorites won: 29/63Picks won: 12/21Net Units: +5.47uROI: 26.05%

  • 9/5/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Washington Nationals 41.24% 0.1548 +180 New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds…

  • 9/4/25 Recap

    Decent day today. Went pretty much how I thought it would tbh. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 3/6Sportsbook favorites won: 3/6Picks won: 1/2Net Units: +0.20uROI: 10.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 26/48Sportsbook favorites won: 23/48Picks won: 11/17Net Units: +6.92uROI: 40.71%

  • 9/4/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies 49.00% 0.0291 +110 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates…

  • 9/3/25 Recap

    Really good day today. Astros and White Sox clutched, though the Astros clutch was in part due to umpire shenanigans. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/15Sportsbook favorites won: 5/15Picks won: 3/4Net Units: +2.95uROI: 73.75% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 23/42Sportsbook favorites won: 20/42Picks won: 10/15Net Units: +6.72uROI: 44.80%

  • 9/3/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Miami Marlins 57.52% -0.0394 -150 New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers…

  • 9/2/25 Recap

    Solid day today. Making small steps to cover last Friday’s burn. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/14Sportsbook favorites won: 8/14Picks won: 3/5Net Units: +0.90uROI: 18.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 16/27Sportsbook favorites won: 15/27Picks won: 7/11Net Units: +3.77uROI: 34.27%

  • 9/2/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers- New York Mets 65.59% 0.1610 -130 Los Angeles Dodgers vs…