Bayesball Picks

Incredible day today. Somehow my high probability picks missed, but I’m not complaining considering all of my lower probability picks with juicy odds hit. Definitely my best day of picks since starting this project. What a way to start the week.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 7/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15
Picks won: 6/8
Net Units: +7.52u
ROI: 94.00%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 7/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15
Picks won: 6/8
Net Units: +7.52u
ROI: 94.00%

Very mediocre day today. Had a ton of picks, but even the higher probability ones like the Cardinals failed to hit. I don’t even want to talk about the Giants game; they had so many opportunities to win but choked all of them. And well, the Mets have swept them now.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
Picks won: 5/10
Net Units: -0.38u
ROI: -3.80%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 47/94
Sportsbook favorites won: 43/94
Picks won: 23/44
Net Units: +3.05u
ROI: 6.93%

Horrendous day today. I think this is my worst day to date. Last Saturday being a good day deceived me into thinking Saturdays were not cursed, but I’m back to having horrible Saturdays. On a similar note, I also seem to be cursed whenever there is a double-header. Honestly, the situation for a double header makes the teams play differently and they are often decently tired by the second match, so in the future, I may only bet on the first of the double-header matches or avoid them entirely.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 6/16
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/16
Picks won: 2/7
Net Units: -3.35u
ROI: -48.86%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 39/79
Sportsbook favorites won: 35/79
Picks won: 18/34
Net Units: +3.43u
ROI: 10.09%

Pretty bad day for my model and the sportsbook, but my picks still hit. The Rockies and Phillies were excellent +EV picks that went against my model but were close to 50%. It seems my model is decently calibrated now. Unfortunately, Guardians vs Royals has been postponed to tomorrow.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 5/14
Sportsbook favorites won: 5/14
Picks won: 4/6
Net Units: +3.01u
ROI: 50.17%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 33/63
Sportsbook favorites won: 28/63
Picks won: 16/27
Net Units: +6.78u
ROI: 25.11%

Very strong day today. Only had two picks today, but both of them hit.

Today’s Stats:

Model favorites won: 3/4
Sportsbook favorites won: 1/4
Picks won: 2/2
Net Units: +2.33u
ROI: 116.50%

Weekly Stats:

Model favorites won: 28/49
Sportsbook favorites won: 23/49
Picks won: 12/21
Net Units: +3.77u
ROI: 17.95%