Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

More Information

Recent posts

    • 9/14/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Pittsburgh Pirates ML -110, 7.5%
      • Kansas City Royals ML +140, 20%
      • Chicago White Sox ML +140, 12.5%
      • Arizona Diamondbacks ML +105, 15%
      • Athletics ML -110, 10%
      • Colorado Rockies ML +275, 5%
      • Boston Red Sox ML -160, 10%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
      Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington NationalsPittsburgh Pirates59.84%0.1429-110
      Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia PhilliesKansas City Royals65.10%0.5625+140
      Houston Astros vs Atlanta BravesHouston Astros64.88%0.0965-145
      Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue JaysBaltimore Orioles42.61%0.0652+150
      Texas Rangers vs New York MetsTexas Rangers46.51%0.0930+135
      Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland GuardiansChicago White Sox57.54%0.3809+140
      Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins*Detroit Tigers63.55%0.0740-145
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota TwinsArizona Diamondbacks65.07%0.3340+105
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee BrewersSt. Louis Cardinals43.41%0.0852+150
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago CubsTampa Bay Rays41.50%-0.0246+135
      Cincinnati Reds vs AthleticsAthletics62.41%0.1920-110
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco GiantsLos Angeles Dodgers61.51%0.0519-140
      Colorado Rockies vs San Diego PadresColorado Rockies36.14%0.3553+275
      Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Angels36.63%0.0624+190
      New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox69.32%0.1230-160

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington NationalsPittsburgh Pirates59.84%
      Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia PhilliesKansas City Royals65.10%
      Houston Astros vs Atlanta BravesHouston Astros64.88%
      Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays57.39%
      Texas Rangers vs New York MetsNew York Mets53.49%
      Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland GuardiansChicago White Sox57.54%
      Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins*Detroit Tigers63.55%
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota TwinsArizona Diamondbacks65.07%
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers56.59%
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs58.50%
      Cincinnati Reds vs AthleticsAthletics62.41%
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco GiantsLos Angeles Dodgers61.51%
      Colorado Rockies vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres63.86%
      Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners63.37%
      New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox69.32%

      *Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams

    • 9/13/25 Recap

      Once again, another day with very high confidence picks that fell flat.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 10/15
      Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
      Picks won: 4/9
      Net Units: -0.68u
      ROI: -7.56%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 40/65
      Sportsbook favorites won: 47/65
      Picks won: 13/33
      Net Units: -6.27u
      ROI: -19.00%

    • 9/13/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Tampa Bay Rays ML +100, 7.5%
      • Washington Nationals ML -110, 22.5%
      • Texas Rangers ML +135, 7.5%
      • Detroit Tigers ML -130, 15%
      • Kansas City Royals ML +125, 22.5%
      • Arizona Diamondbacks ML +120, 7.5%
      • Houston Astros ML -130, 15%
      • St. Louis Cardinals ML +140, 7.5%
      • Colorado Rockies ML +300, 5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
      Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago CubsTampa Bay Rays58.12%0.1623+100
      Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue JaysBaltimore Orioles44.39%0.0654+140
      Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals75.38%0.4398-110
      Texas Rangers vs New York MetsTexas Rangers51.37%0.2071+135
      Detroit Tigers vs Miami MarlinsDetroit Tigers70.96%0.2560-130
      New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox47.46%0.0347+120
      Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia PhilliesKansas City Royals70.59%0.5882+125
      Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians60.36%-0.0283-165
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota TwinsArizona Diamondbacks55.47%0.2203+120
      Houston Astros vs Atlanta BravesHouston Astros69.64%0.2326-130
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee BrewersSt. Louis Cardinals51.45%0.2349+140
      Colorado Rockies vs San Diego PadresColorado Rockies34.39%0.3756+300
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants48.24%-0.0112+105
      Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Angels45.03%0.2609+180
      Cincinnati Reds vs AthleticsCincinnati Reds53.16%-0.0272-120

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago CubsTampa Bay Rays58.12%
      Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays55.61%
      Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals75.38%
      Texas Rangers vs New York MetsTexas Rangers51.37%
      Detroit Tigers vs Miami MarlinsDetroit Tigers70.96%
      New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxNew York Yankees52.54%
      Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia PhilliesKansas City Royals70.59%
      Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians60.36%
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota TwinsArizona Diamondbacks55.47%
      Houston Astros vs Atlanta BravesHouston Astros69.64%
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee BrewersSt. Louis Cardinals51.45%
      Colorado Rockies vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres65.61%
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco GiantsLos Angeles Dodgers51.76%
      Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners54.97%
      Cincinnati Reds vs AthleticsCincinnati Reds53.16%

    • 9/12/25 Recap

      My losing streak continues.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 6/15
      Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
      Picks won: 2/5
      Net Units: -1.32u
      ROI: -26.40%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 30/65
      Sportsbook favorites won: 37/65
      Picks won: 9/24
      Net Units: -5.59u
      ROI: -23.29%

    • 9/12/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Kansas City Royals ML +115, 15%
      • Texas Rangers ML -110, 5%
      • Chicago White Sox ML +145, 10%
      • Houston Astros ML +100, 20%
      • St. Louis Cardinals ML +165, 7.5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
      Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago CubsTampa Bay Rays42.81%0.0728+150
      Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington NationalsPittsburgh Pirates51.16%-0.0229-110
      Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia PhilliesKansas City Royals62.39%0.3414+115
      Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue JaysBaltimore Orioles51.21%0.1010+115
      Texas Rangers vs New York MetsTexas Rangers57.68%0.1016-110
      Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland GuardiansChicago White Sox52.26%0.2805+145
      Detroit Tigers vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins34.45%-0.0181+185
      New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox53.23%0.0646+100
      Houston Astros vs Atlanta BravesHouston Astros72.32%0.4272+100
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota TwinsArizona Diamondbacks51.02%0.0459+105
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee BrewersSt. Louis Cardinals48.22%0.2779+165
      Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres*Colorado Rockies30.70%0.1207+265
      Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics*Athletics55.87%0.0224-120
      Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Angels39.59%-0.0499+140
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco GiantsLos Angeles Dodgers62.92%0.0131-165

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs57.09%
      Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington NationalsPittsburgh Pirates51.16%
      Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia PhilliesKansas City Royals62.39%
      Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue JaysBaltimore Orioles51.21%
      Texas Rangers vs New York MetsTexas Rangers57.68%
      Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland GuardiansChicago White Sox52.26%
      Detroit Tigers vs Miami MarlinsDetroit Tigers65.55%
      New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox53.23%
      Houston Astros vs Atlanta BravesHouston Astros71.36%
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota TwinsArizona Diamondbacks51.02%
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers51.78%
      Colorado Rockies vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres69.30%
      Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics*Athletics55.87%
      Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners60.41%
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco GiantsLos Angeles Dodgers62.92%

      *Missing starting pitcher information for one or both teams

    • 9/11/25 Recap

      Yet another bad day. Mets completely choked.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 5/9
      Sportsbook favorites won: 8/9
      Picks won: 0/2
      Net Units: -2.00u
      ROI: -100.00%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 24/50
      Sportsbook favorites won: 29/50
      Picks won: 7/19
      Net Units: -4.27u
      ROI: -22.47%

    • 9/11/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +100, 7.5%
      • New York Mets ML +110, 10%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
      Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbabilityEVOdds
      Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore OriolesPittsburgh Pirates57.64%0.1529+100
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White SoxTampa Bay Rays58.40%0.0337-130
      Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue JaysHouston Astros44.17%0.0381+135
      Washington Nationals vs Miami MarlinsWashington Nationals50.05%-0.0090+100
      Detroit Tigers vs New York YankeesDetroit Tigers48.34%0.1360+135
      Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland GuardiansKansas City Royals46.37%-0.0030+115
      New York Mets vs Philadelphia PhilliesNew York Mets56.63%0.1892+110
      Colorado Rockies vs San Diego PadresColorado Rockies35.35%0.0606+200
      Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Angels44.33%0.0418+135

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore OriolesPittsburgh Pirates57.64%
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White SoxTampa Bay Rays58.40%
      Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays55.83%
      Washington Nationals vs Miami MarlinsWashington Nationals50.05%
      Detroit Tigers vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees51.66%
      Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians53.63%
      New York Mets vs Philadelphia PhilliesNew York Mets56.63%
      Colorado Rockies vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres64.65%
      Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners55.67%

    • 9/10/25 Recap

      It feels like every time I get a good day, I immediately get a horrible one that resets everything.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 4/15
      Sportsbook favorites won: 5/15
      Picks won: 1/5
      Net Units: -2.80u
      ROI: -56.00%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 19/41
      Sportsbook favorites won: 21/41
      Picks won: 7/17
      Net Units: -2.27u
      ROI: -13.35%

    • 9/10/25 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Cleveland Guardians ML -110, 15%
      • Washington Nationals ML +125, 5%
      • New York Mets ML +145, 7.5%
      • Cincinnati Reds ML +130, 5%
      • St. Louis Cardinals ML +185, 7.5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
      Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers49.16%0.0324+110
      Boston Red Sox vs AthleticsBoston Red Sox57.50%0.0178-130
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants53.40%-0.0227-120
      Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels62.09%0.0989-130
      Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore OriolesPittsburgh Pirates62.99%0.0394-155
      Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians66.20%0.2645-110
      Washington Nationals vs Miami MarlinsWashington Nationals51.12%0.1502+125
      New York Mets vs Philadelphia PhilliesNew York Mets50.06%0.2264+145
      Detroit Tigers vs New York YankeesDetroit Tigers43.44%0.0425+140
      Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays57.62%-0.0263-145
      Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves*Atlanta Braves47.24%0.1573+145
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox*Chicago White Sox44.00%-0.0320+120
      Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego PadresCincinnati Reds51.44%0.1318+130
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Seattle MarinersSt. Louis Cardinals45.18%0.2875+185
      Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles DodgersColorado Rockies31.48%0.1806+275

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas RangersMilwaukee Brewers50.84%
      Boston Red Sox vs AthleticsBoston Red Sox57.50%
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants53.40%
      Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels62.09%
      Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore OriolesPittsburgh Pirates62.99%
      Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians66.20%
      Washington Nationals vs Miami MarlinsWashington Nationals51.12%
      New York Mets vs Philadelphia PhilliesNew York Mets50.06%
      Detroit Tigers vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees56.56%
      Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays57.62%
      Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves*Atlanta Braves52.76%
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox*Tampa Bay Rays56.00%
      Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego PadresCincinnati Reds51.44%
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners54.82%
      Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers68.52%

      *Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams

    • 9/9/25 Recap

      Really solid day today. Makes up for yesterday’s fiasco.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 10/15
      Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
      Picks won: 4/5
      Net Units: +3.28u
      ROI: 65.60%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 15/26
      Sportsbook favorites won: 16/26
      Picks won: 6/12
      Net Units: +0.53u
      ROI: 4.42%