I may post picks for the matches in the post-season. I will also be considering futures. As of currently, my top 3 to win the world series according to my model are the Dodgers, Cubs, and Mariners.
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Horrible day today to end the regular season.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15
Picks won: 1/5
Net Units: -2.90u
ROI: -58.00%Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 48/90
Sportsbook favorites won: 50/90
Picks won: 15/34
Net Units: -0.21u
ROI: -0.62% -
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy- Baltimore Orioles ML +165, 17.5%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML +160, 10%
- Miami Marlins ML +110, 5%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +110, 5%
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +160, 15%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox* Boston Red Sox 62.44% N/A N/A Kansas City Royals vs Athletics Athletics 62.24% N/A N/A Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Colorado Rockies 32.41% 0.1504 +255 Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Minnesota Twins 42.80% 0.1984 +180 Chicago White Sox vs Washington Nationals Chicago White Sox 52.50% 0.0238 -105 Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Baltimore Orioles 58.95% 0.5621 +165 Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 51.37% 0.0273 +100 Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays 51.06% 0.3275 +160 Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Arizona Diamondbacks 51.07% 0.0214 +100 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 55.22% 0.0548 -110 Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians* Cleveland Guardians 63.87% 0.0539 -155 New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 53.55% 0.1244 +110 Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Cincinnati Reds 52.90% 0.1109 +110 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Pittsburgh Pirates 55.52% 0.4711 +165 St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs St. Louis Cardinals 46.74% 0.1450 +145 My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
Matchup Predicted Winner Probability Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox* Boston Red Sox 62.44% Kansas City Royals vs Athletics Athletics 62.24% Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 67.59% Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 57.20% Chicago White Sox vs Washington Nationals Chicago White Sox 52.50% Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Baltimore Orioles 58.95% Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 51.37% Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays 51.06% Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Arizona Diamondbacks 51.07% Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 55.22% Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians* Cleveland Guardians 63.87% New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 53.55% Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Cincinnati Reds 52.90% Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Pittsburgh Pirates 55.52% St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 53.26% *Missing starting pitcher information for one or both teams
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Another down day sadly.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 9/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
Picks won: 3/7
Net Units: -0.84u
ROI: -12.00%Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 41/75
Sportsbook favorites won: 39/75
Picks won: 14/29
Net Units: +2.69u
ROI: 9.28% -
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy- Baltimore Orioles ML +205, 7.5%
- Chicago White Sox ML +100. 12.5%
- Boston Red Sox ML -150, 12.5%
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +135, 10%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +120, 12.5%
- Houston Astros ML -165, 10%
- Athletics ML -125, 7.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Baltimore Orioles 44.00% 0.3419 +205 St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs St. Louis Cardinals 44.16% 0.1261 +155 Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays 44.85% 0.0539 +135 Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Colorado Rockies 40.82% 0.2451 +205 Chicago White Sox vs Washington Nationals Chicago White Sox 63.38% 0.2677 +100 Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 69.23% 0.1561 -150 New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 50.00% 0.0750 +115 Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 67.53% -0.0275 -225 Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians* Cleveland Guardians 59.98% -0.0283 -160 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Pittsburgh Pirates 53.41% 0.2550 +135 Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Cincinnati Reds 60.11% 0.3224 +120 Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 56.38% -0.0359 -140 Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Houston Astros 70.75% 0.1391 -165 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 57.68% 0.0382 -125 Kansas City Royals vs Athletics Athletics 61.19% 0.1014 -125 My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
Matchup Predicted Winner Probability Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees New York Yankees 56.00% St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 55.84% Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 55.15% Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 59.18% Chicago White Sox vs Washington Nationals Chicago White Sox 63.38% Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 69.23% New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 50.00% Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 67.53% Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians* Cleveland Guardians 59.98% Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Pittsburgh Pirates 53.41% Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Cincinnati Reds 60.11% Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 56.38% Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Houston Astros 70.75% Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 57.68% Kansas City Royals vs Athletics Athletics 61.19% *Missing starting pitcher information for one or both teams
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Pretty mid day. Really a big blow that the Orioles lost though, given their predicted probability to win.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
Picks won: 2/5
Net Units: -0.20u
ROI: -4.00%Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 32/60
Sportsbook favorites won: 30/60
Picks won: 11/22
Net Units: +3.53u
ROI: 16.05% -
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy- Minnesota Twins ML +135, 12.5%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +130, 22.5%
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +135, 10%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +145, 12.5%
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML +115, 7.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs* Chicago Cubs 62.30% -0.0281 -180 Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Minnesota Twins 55.85% 0.3124 +135 Chicago White Sox vs Washington Nationals Chicago White Sox 52.70% 0.1067 +110 Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Baltimore Orioles 70.28% 0.6166 +130 Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 65.89% 0.0081 -190 Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 55.93% 0.0068 -125 Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 64.43% 0.0438 -160 New York Mets vs Miami Marlins New York Mets 56.60% -0.0321 -140 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Pittsburgh Pirates 52.81% 0.2410 +135 Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Cincinnati Reds 55.34% 0.3559 +145 Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Houston Astros 58.65% -0.0499 -160 Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Arizona Diamondbacks 54.40% 0.1696 +115 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners* Los Angeles Dodgers 50.73% N/A N/A Kansas City Royals vs Athletics* Kansas City Royals 50.36% N/A N/A Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 68.98% -0.0343 -250 My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
Matchup Predicted Winner Probability St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs* Chicago Cubs 62.30% Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Minnesota Twins 55.85% Chicago White Sox vs Washington Nationals Chicago White Sox 52.70% Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Baltimore Orioles 70.28% Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 65.89% Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 55.93% Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 64.43% New York Mets vs Miami Marlins New York Mets 56.60% Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Pittsburgh Pirates 52.81% Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Cincinnati Reds 55.34% Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Houston Astros 58.65% Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Arizona Diamondbacks 54.40% Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners* Los Angeles Dodgers 50.73% Kansas City Royals vs Athletics* Kansas City Royals 50.36% Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 68.98% *Missing starting pitcher information for one or both teams
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Not a great day today. White Sox almost had it, but they choked twice in this series that led to their loss.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/12
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/12
Picks won: 1/3
Net Units: -1.13u
ROI: -37.67%Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 24/45
Sportsbook favorites won: 22/45
Picks won: 9/17
Net Units: +3.73u
ROI: 21.94% -
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy- Chicago White Sox ML +270, 12.5%
- Boston Red Sox ML +110, 10%
- Kansas City Royals ML -115, 12.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Pittsburgh Pirates 48.46% 0.1631 +140 Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Rays 59.20% 0.0301 -135 Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins 42.66% -0.0401 +125 Houston Astros vs Athletics Athletics 49.66% -0.0068 +100 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 44.93% 0.0784 +140 Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 66.07% 0.0372 -175 Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians* Cleveland Guardians 65.03% 0.0470 -165 Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 45.31% 0.6763 +270 Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Boston Red Sox 57.01% 0.1973 +110 New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs New York Mets 51.26% -0.0209 -110 Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Kansas City Royals 65.19% 0.2191 -115 Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners* Colorado Rockies 35.07% -0.0355 +175 My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
Matchup Predicted Winner Probability Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 51.54% Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Rays 59.20% Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 57.34% Houston Astros vs Athletics Houston Astros 50.34% Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Dodgers 55.07% Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 66.07% Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians* Cleveland Guardians 65.03% Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees New York Yankees 54.69% Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Boston Red Sox 57.01% New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs New York Mets 51.26% Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Kansas City Royals 65.19% Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners* Seattle Mariners 64.93% *Missing starting pitcher information for one or both teams
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Pretty solid day today.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 9/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
Picks won: 3/5
Net Units: +1.11u
ROI: 22.20%Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 16/33
Sportsbook favorites won: 14/33
Picks won: 8/14
Net Units: +4.86u
ROI: 34.71%
