I’ll be off on a small break, so I won’t be posting for the next couple of days. I might still post my picks tomorrow, but I will not post the recap until I get back. Should be back by Saturday.
Bayesball Picks
Model-Based EV Picks
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Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games
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Good day overall, but it could have been a lot better if the White Sox didn’t choke a 10-4 lead.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 13/16
Sportsbook favorites won: 12/16
Picks won: 5/7
Net Units: +2.81u
ROI: 40.14%Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 19/28
Sportsbook favorites won: 17/28
Picks won: 10/12
Net Units: +8.19u
ROI: 68.25% -
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy- St. Louis Cardinals ML +125, 7.5%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +120, 10%
- Chicago White Sox ML +140, 20%
- Athletics ML +130, 7.5%
- Milwaukee Brewers ML -135, 5%
- Cincinnati Reds ML -150, 5%
- San Diego Padres ML -255, 15%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 58.18% 0.0123 -135 Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Houston Astros 41.90% 0.0266 +145 Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 42.55% -0.0426 +125 St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins St. Louis Cardinals 51.18% 0.1515 +125 New York Mets vs Washington Nationals New York Mets 68.74% -0.0033 -220 Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies Seattle Mariners 43.51% 0.1096 +155 Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Baltimore Orioles 54.97% 0.2094 +120 Chicago White Sox vs Atlanta Braves Chicago White Sox 65.95% 0.5828 +140 New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 43.89% -0.0126 +125 Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 56.34% 0.0535 -115 Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Athletics 52.23% 0.2012 +130 Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Milwaukee Brewers 60.98% 0.0611 -135 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 31.94% 0.0700 +235 Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Angels Cincinnati Reds 64.84% 0.0828 -150 Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks Cleveland Guardians 51.11% 0.0222 +100 San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 79.51% 0.1052 -255 My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
Matchup Predicted Winner Probability Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 58.18% Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 58.10% Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Toronto Blue Jays 57.45% St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins St. Louis Cardinals 51.18% New York Mets vs Washington Nationals New York Mets 68.74% Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 56.49% Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Baltimore Orioles 54.97% Chicago White Sox vs Atlanta Braves Chicago White Sox 65.95% New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays New York Yankees 56.11% Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 56.34% Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Athletics 52.23% Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Milwaukee Brewers 60.98% Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Los Angeles Dodgers 68.06% Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Angels Cincinnati Reds 64.84% Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks Cleveland Guardians 51.11% San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 79.51% -
Great start to the week. Finally got all the analysis done, so I will be using this model until the end of the season probably. And this will be the official start to my second live-test session.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 6/12
Sportsbook favorites won: 5/12
Picks won: 5/5
Net Units: +5.38u
ROI: 107.60%Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 6/12
Sportsbook favorites won: 5/12
Picks won: 5/5
Net Units: +5.38u
ROI: 107.60% -
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy- Pittsburgh Pirates ML -110, 7.5%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +105, 7.5%
- Chicago White Sox ML +185, 20%
- Kansas City Royals ML -135, 15%
- Cincinnati Reds ML -120, 15%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 52.68% -0.0517 -125 Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 62.59% 0.0452 -150 Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 58.27% 0.1129 -110 St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 57.81% -0.0114 -140 Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies Seattle Mariners 55.36% 0.0574 -110 Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Baltimore Orioles 54.67% 0.1208 +105 Chicago White Sox vs Atlanta Braves Chicago White Sox 59.49% 0.6955 +185 Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 69.36% 0.2069 -135 Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Milwaukee Brewers 52.76% 0.0077 -110 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 30.08% 0.0528 +250 Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Angels Cincinnati Reds 66.89% 0.2241 -120 Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 52.27% -0.0225 -114 San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants 48.64% 0.0700 +120 My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
Matchup Predicted Winner Probability Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 52.68% Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 62.59% Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 58.27% St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 57.81% Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies Seattle Mariners 55.36% Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Baltimore Orioles 54.67% Chicago White Sox vs Atlanta Braves Chicago White Sox 59.49% Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 69.36% Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Milwaukee Brewers 52.76% Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Los Angeles Dodgers 69.92% Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Angels Cincinnati Reds 66.89% Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 52.27% San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 51.36% -
Horrible day. Half of my losses were chokes in the 8th or 9th inning which really sucks.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15
Picks won: 2/8
Net Units: -4.51u
ROI: -56.38%Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 43/93
Sportsbook favorites won: 45/93
Picks won: 17/44
Net Units: -8.61u
ROI: -19.57% -
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy- Philadelphia Phillies ML -185, 5%
- Boston Red Sox ML -270, 20%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +110, 2.5%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML +130, 15%
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +160, 5%
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML -140, 10%
- Athletics ML -110, 10%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML +135, 10%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies 69.09% 0.0640 -185 Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 83.46% 0.1434 -270 Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 53.59% 0.0236 -110 Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland Guardians Atlanta Braves 48.24% 0.0129 +110 Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 53.38% 0.0409 -105 Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros Houston Astros 57.39% -0.0300 -145 Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Detroit Tigers 54.66% -0.0325 -130 Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Chicago White Sox 43.64% 0.0691 +145 New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 60.21% 0.3848 +130 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Pittsburgh Pirates 44.94% 0.1686 +160 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Arizona Diamondbacks 67.51% 0.1544 -140 Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics Athletics 62.30% 0.1899 -110 Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco Giants Tampa Bay Rays 52.58% 0.2355 +135 San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers San Diego Padres 41.52% -0.0451 +135 Seattle Mariners vs New York Mets Seattle Mariners 58.75% 0.0575 -125 My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
Matchup Predicted Winner Probability Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies 69.09% Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 83.46% Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 53.59% Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 51.76% Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 53.38% Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros Houston Astros 57.39% Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Detroit Tigers 54.66% Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 56.36% New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 60.21% Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 55.06% Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Arizona Diamondbacks 67.51% Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics Athletics 62.30% Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco Giants Tampa Bay Rays 52.58% San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 58.48% Seattle Mariners vs New York Mets Seattle Mariners 58.75% -
Another day full of choking. Diamondbacks and Reds had insane chokes. Can’t wait to wrap up this week though. The few starting days of the new model were pretty solid, and I’m still positive with the new model, but this Monday was awful.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
Picks won: 3/8
Net Units: -2.26u
ROI: -28.25%Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 38/78
Sportsbook favorites won: 38/78
Picks won: 15/36
Net Units: -4.10u
ROI: -11.39% -
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy- Seattle Mariners ML -130, 10%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +120, 7.5%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +125, 10%
- Chicago White Sox ML +140, 12.5%
- Detroit Tigers ML -120, 15%
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML -200, 10%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML +100, 10%
- Athletics ML -110, 20%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 72.76% 0.0186 -250 Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 66.54% 0.0713 -165 Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies 61.70% -0.0066 -165 Seattle Mariners vs New York Mets Seattle Mariners 65.18% 0.1538 -130 Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox Miami Marlins 38.81% -0.0296 +150 Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 54.10% 0.1903 +120 Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros Baltimore Orioles 56.66% 0.2748 +125 Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 55.27% -0.0051 -125 Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Chicago White Sox 56.83% 0.3639 +140 Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Detroit Tigers 67.68% 0.2386 -120 New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 43.91% -0.0121 +125 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Arizona Diamondbacks 73.82% 0.1074 -200 Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco Giants Tampa Bay Rays 59.70% 0.1939 +100 San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 61.79% 0.0565 -140 Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics Athletics 73.30% 0.4000 -110 My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
Matchup Predicted Winner Probability Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 72.76% Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 66.54% Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies 61.70% Seattle Mariners vs New York Mets Seattle Mariners 65.18% Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 61.19% Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 54.10% Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros Baltimore Orioles 56.66% Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 55.27% Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Chicago White Sox 56.83% Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Detroit Tigers 67.68% New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals New York Yankees 56.09% Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Arizona Diamondbacks 73.82% Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco Giants Tampa Bay Rays 59.70% San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 61.79% Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics Athletics 73.30% -
Horrible day. So many of my picks absolutely choked today. Generational choke by the Reds, Rangers, and Giants. Although at this point, the Giants choke was very expected. I see loaded bases and I know they won’t score.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 6/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15
Picks won: 2/8
Net Units: -3.46u
ROI: -43.25%Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 30/63
Sportsbook favorites won: 29/63
Picks won: 12/28
Net Units: -1.84u
ROI: -6.57%
Bayesball Picks 