Model-Based EV Picks
Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games
Pretty solid day to start the week and the month.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/13
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/13
Picks won: 4/6
Net Units: +2.87u
ROI: 47.83%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/13
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/13
Picks won: 4/6
Net Units: +2.87u
ROI: 47.83%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals* | Miami Marlins | 54.29% | N/A | N/A |
| New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 48.59% | -0.0282 | +100 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 56.42% | 0.0155 | -125 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 61.27% | 0.4092 | +130 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | 49.94% | 0.1236 | +125 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 54.03% | 0.3778 | +155 |
| Athletics vs St. Louis Cardinals | Athletics | 73.73% | 0.6221 | +120 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 66.21% | 0.1719 | -130 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 55.51% | 0.2767 | +130 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Philadelphia Phillies | 41.99% | -0.0133 | +135 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres | Baltimore Orioles | 54.62% | 0.2836 | +135 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 49.70% | -0.0060 | +100 |
| Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 60.12% | 0.0041 | -150 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals* | Miami Marlins | 54.29% |
| New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers | New York Mets | 51.41% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 56.42% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 61.27% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 50.06% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 54.03% |
| Athletics vs St. Louis Cardinals | Athletics | 73.73% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 66.21% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 55.51% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 58.01% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres | Baltimore Orioles | 54.62% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Seattle Mariners | 50.30% |
| Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 60.12% |
*One or both teams may be missing starting pitcher data
Another bad day to bring this week down to a horrible week. Particularly got screwed on Friday though.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
Picks won: 1/4
Net Units: -1.35u
ROI: -33.75%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 50/96
Sportsbook favorites won: 53/96
Picks won: 15/39
Net Units: -4.25u
ROI: -10.90%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 58.83% | -0.0058 | -145 |
| San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins | San Diego Padres | 62.62% | 0.3150 | +110 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox | Pittsburgh Pirates | 37.79% | -0.0364 | +155 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 43.74% | -0.0378 | +120 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.73% | 0.0071 | -110 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | 50.75% | -0.0509 | -115 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 38.28% | -0.0431 | +150 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | 42.51% | 0.0628 | +115 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 43.88% | 0.1188 | +115 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 52.28% | 0.3855 | +165 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | Chicago Cubs | 70.05% | -0.0403 | -270 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Francisco Giants | Baltimore Orioles | 61.56% | 0.2928 | +110 |
| Texas Rangers vs Athletics | Athletics | 46.61% | 0.0720 | +130 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 39.40% | 0.1229 | +185 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 69.82% | 0.1520 | -155 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 58.83% |
| San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins | San Diego Padres | 62.62% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 62.21% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | Tampa Bay Rays | 56.26% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.73% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | 50.75% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 61.72% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 57.49% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Detroit Tigers | 56.12% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 52.28% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | Chicago Cubs | 70.05% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Francisco Giants | Baltimore Orioles | 61.56% |
| Texas Rangers vs Athletics | Texas Rangers | 53.39% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 60.60% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 69.82% |
Alright day today. A lot more in line with the smaller more consistent gains my model previously had. Yesterday still stings.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 6/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 7//15
Picks won: 2/4
Net Units: 0.30u
ROI: 7.50%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 42/81
Sportsbook favorites won: 45/81
Picks won: 14/35
Net Units: -2.90u
ROI: -8.29%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Milwaukee Brewers | 47.99% | 0.0078 | +110 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 42.58% | -0.0206 | +130 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox | Pittsburgh Pirates | 48.15% | 0.2038 | +150 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 45.40% | 0.1577 | +155 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies* | Philadelphia Phillies | 60.68% | 0.0012 | -155 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | St. Louis Cardinals | 42.73% | -0.0385 | +125 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | 45.76% | 0.0525 | +130 |
| San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins | San Diego Padres | 63.59% | -0.0270 | -190 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 47.67% | 0.3825 | +190 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Detroit Tigers | 55.37% | 0.0133 | -120 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | 57.51% | -0.0396 | -150 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Francisco Giants | Baltimore Orioles | 57.16% | 0.0289 | -125 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | Chicago Cubs | 68.91% | 0.0130 | -210 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizonia Diamondbacks | 39.76% | 0.1531 | +190 |
| Texas Rangers vs Athletics | Athletics | 55.17% | 0.1586 | +110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 52.01% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | Tampa Bay Rays | 57.42% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 51.85% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 54.60% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies* | Philadelphia Phillies | 60.68% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 57.27% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 54.24% |
| San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins | San Diego Padres | 63.59% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | New York Yankees | 52.33% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Detroit Tigers | 55.37% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | 57.51% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Francisco Giants | Baltimore Orioles | 57.16% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | Chicago Cubs | 68.91% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 60.24% |
| Texas Rangers vs Athletics | Athletics | 55.17% |
*Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams
Horrendous day. By my calculations, losing on all 6 picks was a ~1% probability event. It’s bound to happen, but man does it feel terrible. Looking at model analysis, it doesn’t seem like the model is doing horribly, just an unlucky day.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 7//15
Picks won: 0/6
Net Units: -6.00u
ROI: -100.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 36/66
Sportsbook favorites won: 38/66
Picks won: 12/31
Net Units: -3.20u
ROI: -10.32%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 59.10% | 0.0283 | -135 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | Tampa Bay Rays | 57.77% | -0.0353 | -150 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 68.14% | 0.0222 | -200 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 61.90% | 0.0956 | -130 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.01% | 0.0661 | +105 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | 62.51% | 0.0063 | -165 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 53.91% | 0.3208 | +145 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 43.10% | 0.2498 | +190 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | 50.43% | 0.2608 | +150 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 57.67% | 0.0208 | -130 |
| San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins | San Diego Padres | 67.50% | 0.1745 | -135 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 33.03% | -0.0255 | +195 |
| Texas Rangers vs Athletics | Athletics | 68.60% | 0.2143 | -130 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 39.70% | 0.0718 | +170 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Francisco Giants | Baltimore Orioles | 54.67% | 0.2575 | +130 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 59.10% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | Tampa Bay Rays | 57.77% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 68.14% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 61.90% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.01% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | 62.51% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 53.91% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | New York Yankees | 56.90% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | 50.43% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 57.67% |
| San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins | San Diego Padres | 67.50% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | Chicago Cubs | 66.97% |
| Texas Rangers vs Athletics | Athletics | 68.60% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 60.30% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Francisco Giants | Baltimore Orioles | 54.67% |
First bad day in a while. Rockies almost had that game tbh. White Sox played poorly the entire time except for the grand slam (which wouldn’t have even happened without a typical Volpe error).
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 4/8
Sportsbook favorites won: 6/8
Picks won: 1/4
Net Units: -1.55u
ROI: -38.75%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 31/51
Sportsbook favorites won: 31/51
Picks won: 12/25
Net Units: +2.80u
ROI: 11.20%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 38.95% | 0.0127 | +160 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros | Colorado Rockies | 42.25% | 0.3519 | +220 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 58.53% | 0.4048 | +140 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 61.43% | 0.2287 | +100 |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | Chicago Cubs | 54.10% | 0.0333 | -110 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | Atlanta Braves | 45.72% | 0.1659 | +155 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 33.13% | 0.0767 | +225 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 61.39% | 0.6268 | +165 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | 61.05% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 57.75% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 58.53% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 61.43% |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | Chicago Cubs | 54.10% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 54.28% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 66.87% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 61.39% |
Bayesball Picks 