Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

Recent posts

Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games

Category: Uncategorized

  • 11/1/25 Recap

    Unfortunately, the Dodgers won the World Series. My model was surprisingly solid for the postseason, though I did miss a few of the earlier matches. Although it was a low sample size, hopefully this means my model is effective for the postseason as well. Anyways, baseball season is over, so see y’all next year. Today’s…

  • 11/1/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 44.62% -0.0406 +120 My Model’s Predicted…

  • 10/31/25 Recap

    Dodgers probably end up winning the World Series again. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/1Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1Picks won: 0/1Net Units: -1.00uROI: -100.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 23/35Sportsbook favorites won: 21/35Picks won: 14/25Net Units: +4.48uROI: 17.92%

  • 10/31/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 50.00% 0.1000 +120 My Model’s Predicted…

  • 10/29/25 Recap

    Jays are back to home to hopefully close it out Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 0/1Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +1.70uROI: 170.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 22/34Sportsbook favorites won: 20/34Picks won: 14/24Net Units: +5.48uROI: 22.83%

  • 10/29/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Dodgers Toronto Blue Jays 49.27% 0.3550 +175 My Model’s Predicted…

  • 10/28/25 Recap

    Hope Jays can continue to win. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/1Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1Picks won: 1/1Net Units: +1.65uROI: 165.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 22/33Sportsbook favorites won: 20/33Picks won: 13/23Net Units: +3.78uROI: 16.43%

  • 10/28/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Dodgers Toronto Blue Jays 58.85% 0.5595 +165 My Model’s Predicted…

  • 10/27/25 Recap

    Wow, what a game. Worth giving up my sleep. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/1Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1Picks won: 0/1Net Units: -1.00uROI: -100.00% Post-Season Stats: Model favorites won: 21/32Sportsbook favorites won: 20/32Picks won: 12/22Net Units: +2.13uROI: 9.68%

  • 10/27/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Dodgers Toronto Blue Jays 44.56% 0.2032 +170 My Model’s Predicted…