Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games

10/17/25 Baseball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

  • Seattle Mariners ML +100, 2.5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue JaysSeattle Mariners51.01%0.0201+100

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue JaysSeattle Mariners51.01%
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