My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Chicago Cubs ML -110, 7.5%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +225, 10%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 60.39% | 0.0205 | -145 |
| San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 59.67% | 0.1396 | -110 |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 44.68% | 0.1170 | +150 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds | 46.20% | 0.5015 | +225 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 60.39% |
| San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 59.67% |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 55.32% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 53.80% |
Bayesball Picks 
Leave a comment