My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Cleveland Guardians ML +140, 7.5%
- Chicago Cubs ML -120, 5%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +180, 12.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 51.78% | 0.2427 | +140 |
| San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 58.12% | 0.0636 | -120 |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 48.69% | 0.0225 | +110 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds | 51.07% | 0.4301 | +180 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 51.78% |
| San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 58.12% |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 51.31% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds | 51.07% |
Bayesball Picks 
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