My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Baltimore Orioles ML +165, 17.5%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML +160, 10%
- Miami Marlins ML +110, 5%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +110, 5%
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +160, 15%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox* | Boston Red Sox | 62.44% | N/A | N/A |
| Kansas City Royals vs Athletics | Athletics | 62.24% | N/A | N/A |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | Colorado Rockies | 32.41% | 0.1504 | +255 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Minnesota Twins | 42.80% | 0.1984 | +180 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Washington Nationals | Chicago White Sox | 52.50% | 0.0238 | -105 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles | 58.95% | 0.5621 | +165 |
| Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 51.37% | 0.0273 | +100 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | 51.06% | 0.3275 | +160 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.07% | 0.0214 | +100 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 55.22% | 0.0548 | -110 |
| Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians* | Cleveland Guardians | 63.87% | 0.0539 | -155 |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 53.55% | 0.1244 | +110 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | 52.90% | 0.1109 | +110 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | 55.52% | 0.4711 | +165 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals | 46.74% | 0.1450 | +145 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox* | Boston Red Sox | 62.44% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Athletics | Athletics | 62.24% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 67.59% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 57.20% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Washington Nationals | Chicago White Sox | 52.50% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles | 58.95% |
| Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 51.37% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | 51.06% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.07% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 55.22% |
| Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians* | Cleveland Guardians | 63.87% |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 53.55% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | 52.90% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | 55.52% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 53.26% |
*Missing starting pitcher information for one or both teams
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