My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Baltimore Orioles ML +205, 7.5%
- Chicago White Sox ML +100. 12.5%
- Boston Red Sox ML -150, 12.5%
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +135, 10%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +120, 12.5%
- Houston Astros ML -165, 10%
- Athletics ML -125, 7.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles | 44.00% | 0.3419 | +205 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals | 44.16% | 0.1261 | +155 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | 44.85% | 0.0539 | +135 |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | Colorado Rockies | 40.82% | 0.2451 | +205 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Washington Nationals | Chicago White Sox | 63.38% | 0.2677 | +100 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 69.23% | 0.1561 | -150 |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 50.00% | 0.0750 | +115 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 67.53% | -0.0275 | -225 |
| Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians* | Cleveland Guardians | 59.98% | -0.0283 | -160 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.41% | 0.2550 | +135 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | 60.11% | 0.3224 | +120 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 56.38% | -0.0359 | -140 |
| Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels | Houston Astros | 70.75% | 0.1391 | -165 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 57.68% | 0.0382 | -125 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Athletics | Athletics | 61.19% | 0.1014 | -125 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 56.00% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 55.84% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 55.15% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 59.18% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Washington Nationals | Chicago White Sox | 63.38% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 69.23% |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 50.00% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 67.53% |
| Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians* | Cleveland Guardians | 59.98% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.41% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | 60.11% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 56.38% |
| Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels | Houston Astros | 70.75% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 57.68% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Athletics | Athletics | 61.19% |
*Missing starting pitcher information for one or both teams
Bayesball Picks 
Leave a comment