My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Minnesota Twins ML +135, 12.5%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +130, 22.5%
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +135, 10%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +145, 12.5%
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML +115, 7.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs* | Chicago Cubs | 62.30% | -0.0281 | -180 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Minnesota Twins | 55.85% | 0.3124 | +135 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Washington Nationals | Chicago White Sox | 52.70% | 0.1067 | +110 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles | 70.28% | 0.6166 | +130 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 65.89% | 0.0081 | -190 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 55.93% | 0.0068 | -125 |
| Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 64.43% | 0.0438 | -160 |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | New York Mets | 56.60% | -0.0321 | -140 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.81% | 0.2410 | +135 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | 55.34% | 0.3559 | +145 |
| Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels | Houston Astros | 58.65% | -0.0499 | -160 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks | 54.40% | 0.1696 | +115 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners* | Los Angeles Dodgers | 50.73% | N/A | N/A |
| Kansas City Royals vs Athletics* | Kansas City Royals | 50.36% | N/A | N/A |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 68.98% | -0.0343 | -250 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs* | Chicago Cubs | 62.30% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Minnesota Twins | 55.85% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Washington Nationals | Chicago White Sox | 52.70% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles | 70.28% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 65.89% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 55.93% |
| Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 64.43% |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | New York Mets | 56.60% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.81% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | 55.34% |
| Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels | Houston Astros | 58.65% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks | 54.40% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners* | Los Angeles Dodgers | 50.73% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Athletics* | Kansas City Royals | 50.36% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 68.98% |
*Missing starting pitcher information for one or both teams
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